General Election predictor website shows expected result in every London borough if vote was today

Jake Holden

3 June 2024 at 6:16 am·6-min read

Kier Starmer — -Credit: (Image: JUSTIN TALLIS/AFP via Getty Images)

The General Election is coming up fast on July 4 and the incumbent Conservatives are miles behind opposition Labour in the polls. But how does that actually translate to seats in the House of Commons, and particularly the London seats?

Electoral Calculus has predicted that Labour will win a staggering 320-seat majority as of May 28 based on poll results. This is almost double Tony Blair's Labour landslide victory in 1997 with a majority of 167 seats.

London has 73 MP constituencies and Electoral Calculus has predicted which way each will vote. Let's take a look at all of them and tot up the scores at the end to see which party would come out on top in London if the vote was taken today.

For each constituency, we have listed the party of the current holder, the party of the predicted holder and the predicted percentage of the vote the winner will get to win the seat. In the final column, we have noted whether there is a change or not in the holder of the seat. This is based on the latest opinion polls collated by the website to give an indication of results, though it doesn't mean it's going to happen. Famously the polls for the Brexit vote were way off the actual result.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and wife Victoria Starmer vote in the the London Mayoral election — Labour isn't predicted to cede a single seat to another party - holding 66 out of the 73 available in the capital -Credit:Leon Neal/Getty Images

Constituency	Current	Predicted	Predicted votes	Change
Barking	LAB	LAB	70.4%	No
Battersea	LAB	LAB	59.8%	No
Beckenham & Penge	CON	LAB	52.8%	CON>LAB
Bermondsey and Old Southwark	LAB	LAB	48.3%	No
Bethnal Green and Stepney	LAB	LAB	66.9%	No
Bexleyheath and Crayford	CON	LAB	46.2%	CON>LAB
Brent East	LAB	LAB	64.4%	No
Brent West	LAB	LAB	62.1%	No
Brentford and Isleworth	LAB	LAB	60.5%	No
Bromley and Biggin Hill	CON	LAB	43.2%	CON>LAB
Carshalton and Wallington	CON	LIB	42.3%	CON>LIB
Chelsea and Fulham	CON	LAB	50.3%	CON>LAB
Chingford and Woodford Green	CON	LAB	55.1%	CON>LAB
Chipping Barnet	CON	LAB	54.1%	CON>LAB
Cities of London and Westminster	CON	LAB	47.5%	CON>LAB
Clapham and Brixton Hill	LAB	LAB	68.0%	No
Croydon East	LAB	LAB	56.5%	No
Croydon South	CON	LAB	44.3%	CON>LAB
Croydon West	LAB	LAB	70.2%	No
Dagenham and Rainham	LAB	LAB	58.8%	No
Dulwich and West Norwood	LAB	LAB	67.8%	No
Ealing Central and Acton	LAB	LAB	62.6%	No
Ealing North	LAB	LAB	64.2%	No
Ealing Southall	LAB	LAB	67.1%	No
East Ham	LAB	LAB	70.4%	No
Edmonton and Winchmore Hill	LAB	LAB	63.4%	No
Eltham and Chislehurst	CON	LAB	57.2%	CON>LAB
Enfield North	LAB	LAB	60.3%	No
Erith and Thamesmead	LAB	LAB	66.0%	No
Feltham and Heston	LAB	LAB	60.1%	No
Finchley and Golders Green	CON	LAB	33.2%	CON>LAB
Greenwich and Woolwich	LAB	LAB	67.7%	No
Hackney North and Stoke Newington	LAB	LAB	72.9%	No
Hackney South and Shoreditch	LAB	LAB	75.0%	No
Hammersmith and Chiswick	LAB	LAB	63.0%	No
Hampstead and Highgate	LAB	LAB	52.8%	No
Harrow East	CON	LAB	49.2%	CON>LAB
Harrow West	LAB	LAB	62.4%	No
Hayes and Harlington	LAB	LAB	62.2%	No
Hendon	CON	LAB	56.1%	CON>LAB
Holborn and St Pancras	LAB	LAB	70.0%	No
Hornchurch and Upminster	CON	LAB	45.9%	CON>LAB
Hornsey and Friern Barnet	LAB	LAB	58.7%	No
Ilford North	LAB	LAB	58.1%	No
Ilford South	LAB	LAB	64.6%	No
Islington North	LAB	LAB	70.2%	No
Islington South and Finsbury	LAB	LAB	67.0%	No
Kensington and Bayswater	CON	LAB	51.7%	CON>LAB
Kingston and Surbiton	LIB	LIB	59.4%	No
Lewisham East	LAB	LAB	71.0%	No
Lewisham North	LAB	LAB	75.3%	No
Lewisham West and East Dulwich	LAB	LAB	71.8%	No
Leyton and Wanstead	LAB	LAB	67.8%	No
Mitcham and Morden	LAB	LAB	67.2%	No
Old Bexley and Sidcup	CON	CON	45.9%	No
Orpington	CON	LAB	40.2%	CON>LAB
Peckham	LAB	LAB	74.8%	No
Poplar and Limehouse	LAB	LAB	63.9%	No
Putney	LAB	LAB	56.8%	No
Queen's Park and Maida Vale	LAB	LAB	68.4%	No
Richmond Park	LIB	LIB	54.3%	No
Romford	CON	LAB	44.4%	CON>LAB
Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner	CON	LAB	42.2%	CON>LAB
Southgate and Wood Green	LAB	LAB	64.5%	No
Stratford and Bow	LAB	LAB	69.0%	No
Streatham and Croydon North	LAB	LAB	67.2%	No
Sutton and Cheam	CON	LIB	35.3%	CON>LIB
Tooting	LAB	LAB	65.5%	No
Tottenham	LAB	LAB	76.2%	No
Twickenham	LIB	LIB	56.3%	No
Uxbridge and South Ruislip	CON	LAB	47.3%	CON>LAB
Vauxhall and Camberwell Green	LAB	LAB	69.1%	No
Walthamstow	LAB	LAB	74.2%	No
West Ham and Beckton	LAB	LAB	72.2%	No
Wimbledon	CON	LIB	47.3%	CON>LIB

Rishi Sunak's Conservatives are predicted to lose all bar 1 of their 22 seats. 18 to Labour and three to the Lib Dems -Credit:Yui Mok - WPA Pool/Getty Images

So Electoral Calculus has predicted that the Tories will lose 21 of their London seats - 18 to Labour and three to the Liberal Democrats. They are predicted to retain just one seat in the whole of the capital - Old Bexley and Sidcup. Every other Conservative MP is due to be ousted, including Boris Johnson's old seat in Uxbridge and South Ruislip - now held by Conservative Steven Tuckwell after a by-election last year - and Greg Hands in Chelsea and Fulham.

Dianne Abbot is predicted to comfortably win her seat back in Hackney North and Stoke Newington despite recent controversy surrounding her selection as a Labour candidate. Keir Starmer is also predicted to win his seat in Holborn and St Pancras with ease, as well as Jeremy Corbyn in Islington North.

Labour are not predicted to lose a single seat in the capital, only gain them from Conservative hands. The Liberal Democrats are also in for a good run, not losing any of their three South West London seats and also being predicted to gain three from the Conservatives in Sutton and Cheam, Wimbledon and Carshalton and Wallington. But, anything can happen on polling day and it's important to remember these predictions are based on the limited number of people spoken to by pollsters at this moment in time. Only going out and voting on July 4 will have any effect either way.

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