Yahoo News Humza Yousaf’s future to be determined by Alba Party
Humza Yousaf’s fate in a no confidence vote is in the hands of Alex Salmond’s Alba Party, as SNP sources said the First Minister was a “dead man walking”.
Mr Yousaf decided to scrap the SNP’s power-sharing deal with the Greens on Thursday, a move that backfired spectacularly by prompting Douglas Ross, the Scottish Tory leader, to table a motion of no confidence in the First Minister.
The deciding vote in the poll is set to be held by Ash Regan, the only MSP from Mr Salmond’s party. The former first minister said on Thursday that Ms Regan was now “the most powerful” member in the Scottish Parliament.
If the Greens, Labour and Lib Dems support the Tory no-confidence motion as expected, it will be backed by 64 MSPs. With the SNP holding 63 seats in Holyrood, Ms Regan’s vote could tie the decision - resulting in Mr Yousaf remaining in post.
Nationalist sources said Mr Yousaf’s position was untenable regardless of whether he scraped through next week’s vote of confidence, calling him a “dead man walking.”
They argued he would either have to quit immediately if he lost the vote of no confidence or he would be so badly damaged politically if he won by a vote or two that he would have to end up resigning anyway.
Insiders said he appeared to have horribly misjudged the strength of the reaction from the Greens after he dumped them from the coalition deal.
However, Mr Yousaf’s official spokesman denied reports that he was considering stepping down ahead of the vote.
On Thursday, Mr Salmond warned Mr Yousaf he would go down in history as “Humza the Brief” unless he responded to a series of demands made by Ms Regan.
Ms Regan, a former SNP leadership candidate, is set to write to the First Minister on Friday with a list of “concerns”, including over the Scottish Government’s pro-trans agenda and its lack of progress on achieving independence.
If Mr Yousaf loses the vote, which is expected on Tuesday or Wednesday next week, it is expected he will resign barely a year after he replaced Nicola Sturgeon. The Scottish Parliament would have 28 days to vote for a new first minister.
Should MSPs fail to reach an agreement, a Holyrood election would have to take place. However, this would likely be disastrous for the SNP, with the party slumping in the polls and struggling to raise funds for the forthcoming general election campaign.
Mr Salmond said “Humza’s fate will depend on the reply” to Ms Regan’s letter.
Alba insiders said Ms Regan could demand Mr Yousaf implement the recommendations of the Cass review on gender identity services for children in full.
Dr Hilary Cass, one of the UK’s most eminent paediatricians, found in her report that the evidence for allowing young people and children to change gender was built on weak foundations and that there was no good evidence on the long-term outcomes of treatments such as puberty blockers that are given to children.
Her findings were dismissed by the Scottish Greens.
The Alba insiders also said Ms Regan wanted Mr Yousaf to hold a Scotland-wide referendum on whether Holyrood should gain legislative powers to stage another independence vote.
Ms Regan’s demands marked an extraordinary reversal of fortunes after she finished a distant third to Mr Yousaf in last year’s SNP leadership contest. The First Minister said at the time of her subsequent defection to Alba that it was “no great loss”.
Mr Yousaf found himself being held political hostage by Mr Salmond’s party at the end of a dramatic day that started with him scrapping his power-sharing deal with the Greens.
Green members were scheduled to vote next month on whether they should remain in the Scottish Government after it scrapped its climate change target.
Less than 48 hours after he endorsed the power-sharing arrangement, the First Minister performed an extraordinary about-turn and ripped it up. He said he would lead a minority government instead.
Speaking at a press conference at his Bute House official residence, he repeatedly denied he was a “weak” leader who had been forced to end the coalition by senior Nationalists deeply unhappy with the arrangement.
Mr Yousaf also denied he was “heading for the exit door” and a “lame duck leader” who had been press-ganged into scrapping the deal against his own judgment.
SNP insiders alleged Stephen Flynn, the SNP’s Westminster leader and one of the main candidates to replace Mr Yousaf, had played a key part in the U-turn. His Aberdeen South seat is the hub of the oil and gas industry and he was seen at Holyrood on Wednesday.
The First Minister insisted the impending Green vote meant the deal no longer brought “stability” and the coalition had “served its purpose”.
But the furious Greens accused him of “an act of political cowardice” and argued the “weak and thoroughly hopeless way” he had acted demonstrated “he can no longer be trusted”.
Patrick Harvie, the party’s co-leader and one of the ministers ousted from government, said Mr Yousaf had performed a “total U-turn” and “capitulated” to the “most reactionary, backward-looking forces within the SNP”.
Within hours, the Scottish Greens got their revenge by announcing their seven MSPs had unanimously decided to back the Tory motion of no confidence.
Mr Harvie said: “It’s very clear that Humza Yousaf has decided to burn his bridges with the progressive, pro-independence majority that was established in the Bute House Agreement.
“If it’s a simple matter of confidence in the First Minister, I’m afraid, with a genuinely heavy heart, we would have to vote that we have no confidence in him.”
Labour and the Liberal Democrats also confirmed they would support the motion tabled by Mr Ross stating that “the Parliament has no confidence in the First Minister, in light of his failures in government.”
This meant it had the support of parties that together have 64 MSPs, with the 63 SNP MSPs opposed, making Ms Regan’s vote decisive.
If she supported Mr Yousaf, this could tie the vote at 64 each, giving Holyrood’s presiding officer Alison Johnstone the casting vote. Ms Johnstone is duty-bound to vote for the status quo, meaning Mr Yousaf would survive.
Mr Salmond told Times Radio: “Inadvertently ... Humza Yousaf has managed to make Ash Regan, an Alba MSP, the most powerful MSP in the Scottish Parliament because she now has the swing vote in the parliament.”
Predicting she would use that power “very wisely”, he said her letter to the First Minister would mention “progress towards Scottish independence, protection of the rights of women and girls, and how he’s going to set about restoring some level of competence within the Scottish administration.”
The former first minister later told the BBC: “She’ll set out her concerns and priorities in a letter, and Humza’s fate will depend on the reply to that letter.”
Accusing Mr Yousaf of “kamikaze” tactics, he said: “Humza’s going to have to mend his ways and do it very quickly, otherwise he’s going to become known as Humza the brief.”
Ms Sturgeon invited the independence-supporting Greens to join her minority government in August 2021. The deal, titled the Bute House Agreement, gave her a parliamentary majority.
Several senior Nationalists had argued the SNP should pull the plug on the agreement before Green members had a chance to vote, but as recently as Tuesday Mr Yousaf said he valued it and wanted it to continue.
But Mr Harvie and Lorna Slater, the other Scottish Green minister and party co-leader, were contacted on Wednesday night and asked to attend a meeting.
Mr Yousaf met them at 8am on Thursday to formally notify them he had terminated the deal, then staged an emergency Scottish Cabinet meeting at 8.30am, where his decision received “enthusiastic” backing.
The First Minister told his subsequent press conference: “The Bute House Agreement was intended to provide stability to the Scottish government and it has made possible a number of achievements.
“But it has served its purpose. It is no longer guaranteeing a stable arrangement in parliament.
“The events of recent days have made that clear and therefore after careful consideration I believe that going forward it is in the best interest of the people of Scotland to pursue a different arrangement.”
Pressed why he had changed his stance in less than 48 hours, Mr Yousaf admitted to taking “counsel” from other SNP figures but insisted he had shown “leadership” by scrapping the coalition.
Mr Yousaf pledged the SNP would continue with the coalition’s environmental and pro-trans policies, amid warnings from senior Nationalists that they were alienating voters.
But he dropped a clear hint he would switch focus to bread-and-butter issues such as the economy and the NHS as he argued splitting from the Greens was a “new beginning” for his government.
Ms Slater said: “This is an act of political cowardice by the SNP, who are selling out future generations to appease the most reactionary forces in the country.”
She added: “They have broken the bonds of trust with members of both parties who have twice chosen the co-operation agreement and climate action over chaos, culture wars and division. They have betrayed the electorate.
”And by ending the agreement in such a weak and thoroughly hopeless way, Humza Yousaf has signalled that when it comes to political cooperation, he can no longer be trusted.”
‘It’s time to end this circus and call an election’
Mr Harvie warned Mr Yousaf he could not rely on Green votes any more for a majority and argued he was now more likely to find support from “Right-wing forces.”
Mr Ross said: “We called the SNP-Green deal a coalition of chaos – and it’s ended in absolute chaos. Humza Yousaf’s government is in crisis. It has unravelled. He has abandoned the platform he stood on.
“This weak First Minister jumped before Green members pushed him. The Scottish Conservatives will lodge a vote of no confidence in Humza Yousaf.” The First Minister dismissed the vote as political game-playing.
But Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, said: “The people of Scotland didn’t vote for him to become First Minister. The people of Scotland didn’t vote for this mess and this chaos. It’s time to end this circus and call an election.”
Alex Cole-Hamilton, the Scottish Lib Dem leader, said: “Two clowns have left the clown car, but the circus continues. We don’t just need an end to the Bute House Agreement, we need an end to this entire government.”
However, Mr Yousaf won support from SNP critics who had urged him to scrap the Greens deal, including Mr Flynn and Kate Forbes, who finished a close second in last year’s party leadership contest.
The former Finance Secretary said it was “an opportunity for the party to focus on our priorities” and she stood “firmly and squarely behind the First Minister.” Mr Flynn said the First Minister had acted “in the national interest” by scrapping the coalition.
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