Humza Yousaf is a lame duck First Minister who is crawling towards the end
Humza Yousaf is lame duck leader heading towards the exit.
The SNP First Minister ditched his coalition partners only to walk into a vote of no confidence that could cost him his job.
The Scottish Greens, who are hungry for revenge, are now trying to help bring him down.
Yousaf is a man desperately looking for a liferaft that does not exist.
He has enemies on the Left, foes on the Right and colleagues wanting his job. He is in big trouble.
There is little doubt he made the right decision in ejecting the Greens from Government and ending the Bute House Agreement.
By agreeing to a members’ vote on the SNP deal, Patrick Harvie’s party turned the Government into a pantomime.
If Yousaf had sat on his hands, the next four weeks would have been dominated by the country listening to the niche demands of Green members.
SNP Ministers would have been conscripted into keeping their mouths shut for fear of upsetting the junior partners in government.
Yousaf desperately needed momentum after a terrible first year - the Green vote threatened any revival.
It would also have muzzled the SNP on the eve of a critical general election for the First Minster.
The whole basis of the BHA was to bring stability to the Scottish Government.
Nicola Sturgeon’s minority administration was nearly toppled and she believed a deal with the Greens would bring security
The Greens killed off the stability line from the moment they agreed to an effective referendum of their members.
One of the most senior SNP figures said: “Were they expecting the governing party to let them dominate the airwaves for a month and make endless demands? Shut up and sit down. Who do they think they are?”
The insider also said kicking out of the Greens would allow the SNP to deliver a more effective message on the cost-of-living crisis.
But although Yousaf’s belated judgement was correct, voters will remember him as one of the biggest defenders of the Green pact.
Yousaf defeated Kate Forbes for the SNP leadership last year after trumpeting the virtues of the BHA.
He doubled down on his support for the deal on Tuesday but had u-turned by Thursday: “It is no longer guaranteeing a stable arrangement in Parliament.”
Politicians have the right to change their minds, but the risk is voters will see him as a shameless flip flopper.
The motion of no confidence is also a sign of the times.
Regardless of whether he survives the MONC, every vote for his minority Government will be a struggle.
He can only rely on 63 votes - short of a majority - and will struggle to pass legislation, including the Budget.
Greens, who are out for vengeance, will give a two finger salute to overtures from the SNP.
Labour, the Tories and the Lib Dems smell blood and will refuse to throw a lifeline to an ailing First Minister.
He will now have to go cap in hand to conservative members of his own group and Alba MSP Ash Regan, whose leader Alex Salmond will be joyously pulling the strings.
Yousaf has gone from being dependent on left-wing Greens to relying on right-wing SNP colleagues.
When Salmond led a minority Government, the opposition did not bring him down because they feared the SNP would be rewarded electorally.
This time is different. All the opposition parties would relish an election and the Greens would be in line to win extra seats.
Yousaf is also kidding himself if he thinks ending the BHA is the silver bullet to success.
The Greens have tied him to unpopular positions and acted as a drag anchor, but they are not to solely blame for Yousaf’s woes.
Elections guru John Curtice has said the SNP’s falling support is based on Yousaf’s unpopularity compared to Nicola Sturgeon.
She is seen as a strong leader while he is viewed as weak, a brutal fact no amount of spin can disguise.
Minority government can work - as Salmond and Sturgeon showed - but only if you have a strong personality and first-rate political skills.
Yousaf will have to show the type of shrewd leadership and ability to build bridges that he has so far kept hidden.
The First Minister hailed his decision on ejecting the Greens from Government as a “new beginning” for the country.
Every indication is that it's the beginning of the end for his leadership.
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