I'm a Celebrity: Can the history of the finalists predict the winner in 2023?

We crunch the data of the ITV reality series to see if trends can reveal who will win this year

Who is going to win I'm A Celebrity 2023? (ITV)
Who is going to win I'm A Celebrity 2023? (ITV)

There have been some big clues in I'm a Celebrity to shine a spotlight on who could potentially win the jungle show this year. It has been on air for more than two decades after the first series aired back in 2002, with cheeky presenters Ant McPartlin and Dec Donnelly still at the helm all these years later.

So it's no surprise that there has been a pattern when it comes to the type of celebrity and personality who goes onto win the show. Looking back over the years, what did we find when doing a deep dive into the ITV jungle programme?

What can we learn from the previous winners of I'm a Celebrity?

Do men win I'm a Celebrity more than women?

Yes, but only just.

Of the previous 22 series of the ITV reality show, 55% have been won by men, including the very first one when Tony Blackburn was named King of the Jungle back in 2002.

Traditionally the show has favoured male campmates having taken 59% of the total places in the camp over the last 20 years. This has also led to disparity with the finalists too, with 60% of the finalists also being men.

This trend has continued in 2023, with only Josie Gibson remaining in the jungle ahead of the final weekend, making a win for the former Big Brother star seem unlikely.

What sort of star usually wins I'm a Celebrity?

Traditionally performers have fared best on the ITV reality series. Actors and musicians account for 46% of all the people to ever make it to the final of I'm a Celebrity, but they are tied for total wins. This suggests Marvin Humes could triumph in 2023, with no actors remaining in the final five.

Five actors have won the show — including three from EastEnders: Danny Miller, Jacqueline Jossa, Charlie Brooks, Joe Swash, and Christopher Biggins.

Five musicians have also won the show: Kian Egan, Dougie Poynter, Stacey Solomon, Matt Willis, and Kerry Katona.

Sports personalities are just behind with four wins — can Tony Bellew level the playing field in 2023?

Does age play a part in I'm a Celebrity winners?

Age does seem to play a part in who wins I'm a Celebrity over the years, with recent years seeing younger contestants often making it further in the show than older ones, perhaps due to the physical demands of jungle life, or changing viewer habits.

Finalists typically fell into the 30-49 age range while winners were more frequently found to be between 30-39 years old. This bodes well for current jungle residents Sam Thompson (31) and Josie Gibson (38).

Star Trek's George Takei remains the oldest finalist, reaching the final three in the eighth series aged 86, while 2022's Owen Warner is the youngest finalist at 24.

What makes an I'm A Celebrity winner?

A fresh-faced Kerry Katona was the first Queen of the Jungle. (ITV)
A fresh-faced Kerry Katona was the first Queen of the Jungle. (ITV)

Entertainment and TV PR Lynn Carratt has lifted the lid on what makes a I'm A Celebrity winner. It's not about gender or age as such, it is all about the personality of the celebrity and how they win over the audience with their relatability.

She told Yahoo UK "Winning I'm a Celebrity is first and foremost about how the personality of each campmate connects with the viewing public. It's a TV programme, so the celeb must be entertaining and a team player.

"A good backstory also helps win the audience over, but most importantly, they have to be relatable to the viewing public. The audience wants to watch someone they could go down to the pub for a drink with.

"On the show, we see each celebrity warts and all, and any mask they attempt to wear inevitably slips and turns the audience off, so it's vital for them just to be themselves and that will win over the public."

Who is the favourite to win I'm A Celebrity 2023?

Sam Thompson is tipped to be the winner for this year's I'm A Celebrity. (ITV)
Sam Thompson is tipped to be the winner for this year's I'm A Celebrity. (ITV)

Former Made In Chelsea star Sam Thompson is the favourite to be crowned King of the Jungle in Sunday's final which starts at 9pm on ITV1. Already he has won over a whole new legion of fans with his duracell bunny energy and genuine kindness towards his other campmates.

His name is on all the campmates' lips. The stars voted out the jungle so far this week — Frankie Dettori, Nella Rose, Nick Pickard, Fred Sirieix, and Danielle Harold — have all said they would like to see Thompson crowned the King of the Jungle as he is the "energy" of the camp.

If history is anything to go by, Thompson has a good chance of winning too. He's 31, in the age-bracket that wins most frequently, and more than a third of winners came from London too, where Thompson was born and lives now in Chelsea with his girlfriend Zara McDermott.

If he is made the King, then he will become the 13th male celebrity to win the show and could look to bank more than £1m from his post-jungle career, according to a TV expert. PR mastermind Carratt said: "Winning the show could see him on his way to banking over £1m with various TV shows and endorsement deals. Sam's fanbase has grown since he entered I'm a Celebrity, and he will likely be able to pick and choose what he does next. He'll be hot property."

Women have left first this year

Grace Dent was first to leave the jungle on medical grounds (ITV)
Grace Dent was first to leave the jungle on medical grounds. (ITV)

Grace Dent and Jamie Lynn Spears left the show early this year on medical grounds before celebrities begun being voted out of the jungle by the public. Women leaving first is something that has happened before on I'm a Celebrity.

Having starred on I'm a Celebrity in 2021, former Strictly Come Dancing judge Arlene Phillips questioned why women were voted out first as in her series three women were voted out first.

The PR expert highlighted: "This year, as in other years, we have seen the females leave first, with Grace Dent and Jamie Lynn Spears leaving on medical grounds and Nella Rose voted out, but Danielle and Josie are still going strong, and I believe they will make it to the final three.

I'm A Celebrity's Jamie Lynn Spears is the baby sister of pop star Britney (ITV)
I'm A Celebrity's Jamie Lynn Spears left just days after Grace Dent on medical grounds. (ITV)

"In 2021, choreographer Arlene Phillips questioned why women on I'm A Celebrity got voted out first. She was the first in her series to be eliminated, followed by radio host Snoochie Shy and athlete Kadeena Cox. Arlene believed that sometimes it could be female viewers not supporting the women on the show, but she also said it could simply be down to the male/female ratio of contestants.

"This year saw five women and seven men enter the camp, and we have two females left standing. Personally, I like to see strong, independent women on TV, and I believe we need to see females of all ages represented on screen."

Who has won I'm A Celebrity?

  • Series 1 - Tony Blackburn (Radio presenter) in 2002

  • Series 2 - Phil Tufnell (former England cricketer) in 2003

  • Series 3 - Kerry Katona (singer) in 2004

  • Series 4 Joe Pasquale (comedian) in 2004

  • Series 5 - Carol Thatcher (daughter of Margaret Thatcher and journalist) in 2005

  • Series 6 - Matt Willis (singer) in 2006

  • Series 7 - Christopher Biggins (actor) in 2007

  • Series 8 - Joe Swash (actor) in 2008

  • Series 9 - Gino D'Acampo (Chef and TV presenter) in 2009

  • Series 10 - Stacey Solomon (singer and TV personality) in 2010

  • Series 11 - Dougie Poynter (musician) in 2011

  • Series 12 - Charlie Brooks (EastEnders actor) in 2012

  • Series 13 - Kian Egan (singer) in 2013

  • Series 14 - Carl Fogarty (superbike racer) in 2014

  • Series 15 - Vicky Pattison (reality TV star - Geordie Shore) in 2015

  • Series 16 - Scarlett Moffatt (reality TV star - Gogglebox and TV presenter) in 2016

  • Series 17 - Georgia Toffolo (reality TV star - Made in Chelsea) in 2017

  • Series 18 - Harry Redknapp (football manager and personality) in 2018

  • Series 19 - Jacqueline Jossa (former EastEnders actor) in 2019

  • Series 20 - Giovanna Fletcher (author and presenter) in 2020

  • Series 21 - Danny Miller (Emmerdale actor) in 2021

  • Series 22 - Jill Scott (England footballer) in 2022

Who won the first I'm A Celebrity All Stars?

Myleene Klass - I'm A Celebrity: South Africa 2023 (ITV)
Myleene Klass won I'm A Celebrity: South Africa 2023 after coming runner-up in 2006. (ITV)

Of course, it is also worth noting that Myleene Klass was crowned the Queen of the Jungle earlier this year. The musician came runner up in her original series alongside Matt Willis in the Australian jungle in 2006.

Former Kings, Queens and runners up were flown into the South African jungle for an epic all star version of the well-loved I'm a Celebrity format. Up against stars including the second ever win of the show Phil Tufnell, Klass was crowned the Queen at last.

In a recent interview with Yahoo, Klass shared her secret to success on I'm a Celebrity. "I think people underestimate me all the time because they see the size of me and because I didn't train as an Olympic athlete," she told Yahoo.

"But I've trained as a musician and there is nothing tougher than actually sitting in a room by yourself. You have to have such a strong mindset and I know that program is ridiculous when you look at somebody who's one person's hurling a javelin and the other person's learning a piano sonata.

"But the mindset you have, you have to have immense focus and tenacity and dedication and you have to really believe that you can come up with the good and then you have to face the audience for those three minutes of working for 13 years to get that piece together."

Data visualisation by Isabelle Marchand

The final of I'm a Celebrity... Get Me Out of Here! 2023 will air on ITV on Sunday at 9pm.

Read more: I'm A Celebrity