Iran’s only moderate presidential candidate takes surprise poll lead

Iran’s only moderate candidate for president is leading in the latest polls, prompting panic among hardliners.

Masoud Pezeshkian, a surgeon with reformist leanings, is in front with 33.1 per cent of the vote ahead of the ballot on Friday, according to a survey released by Iran’s government-funded ISPA organisation on Wednesday.

Mr Pezeshkian has benefited from a surge in support from voters desperate to snub the regime of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, although his liberal credentials are only lukewarm.

The poll revealed that 28.8 per cent of respondents back Saeed Jalili, a hardline former nuclear negotiator, while 19.1 per cent favour Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a former commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC).

On Thursday, two ultra-conservative candidates pulled out in an effort to consolidate the hard-line vote and keep Mr Pezeshkian out of power.

As he withdrew, Alireza Zakani, Tehran’s mayor, urged Mr Jalili and Mr Ghalibaf to unite behind a single campaign.

IRGC officials told The Telegraph that Mr Pezeshkian was allowed on the ballot simply to “legitimise” the vote – boosting turn-out in an election certain to be won by a hardliner.

But the possibility remains that a surge in support from hard-up, liberal Iranians could upend the regime’s plans, forcing it to either engage in more invasive rigging than usual or accept an unwelcome president.

Iran’s Guardian Council disqualified 74 candidates for the vote, which was triggered by the death in a helicopter crash of Ebrahim Raisi, the president, last month. That purge took care of all moderates bar Mr Pezeshkian.

“The council has no role, they take the list to Mr Khamenei and he decides,” Mohsen Sazegara, one of the founders of the the IRGC who defected in 2003, told The Telegraph.

The supreme leader may not have seen Mr Pezeshkian, a former health minister, as a threat.

When asked by reporters at the Interior Ministry this month if he represented reformists, the 69-year-old quietly demurred.

In a recent state TV interview, he said he would follow Khamenei’s policies should he win the election. “I believe in the supreme leader, I am totally following him,” he said.

Ethnic minority candidate

As an ethnic Azeri Turk, Mr Pezeshkian hopes to garner votes from millions of Azeris and other minorities, such as the Kurds and Baluchs, who have faced discrimination in recent years.

In 2009, after the violent suppression of protests against the election of a hard-line president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, he briefly disrupted parliament with a fiery speech against the use of force on demonstrators.

Two years ago, he criticised the clerical establishment for the death in custody of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, who was detained for failing to wear her hijab properly.

The election comes at a critical moment for Iran’s clerical establishment.

The country’s economy has been weakened by years of international sanctions, with inflation nearing 50 per cent.

Under Raisi’s administration, personal freedoms and women’s rights were violently suppressed.

Iranians who still believe in the electoral system hope that Mr Pezeshkian could potentially lead Iran out of international isolation or at least avoid plunging the country into the abyss of war in an increasingly volatile region.

“Everyone was very surprised when they announced his name as a qualified candidate,” a senior official from the administration of Mohammad Khatami, a former president, told The Telegraph from Tehran after Mr Pezeshkian was cleared to run.

Mr Khatami, who led Iran from 1997 to 2005, is the figurehead of the reformist movement and boycotted the parliamentary election in March after widespread disqualifications. He has said he will vote for Mr Pezeshkian, who served as health minister in his government.

When Mr Khatami warned that if the reformists did not have a candidate, they would boycott the election again, Khamenei “chose their weakest [candidate]”, for the election, according to Mr Sazegara, the defector.

Approved to raise turnout?

IRGC officials told The Telegraph the regime approved one reformist candidate to ensure that liberals “feel they are in the game” and to secure their votes for a high turnout.

“Our number one candidate is still Mr Ghalibaf and we are trying to convince Jalili to withdraw in favour of Ghalibaf,” said an official within the IRGC.

Hossein Dehghan, an influential commander of the IRGC and former defence minister, is using his influence with the supreme leader to try to convince Mr Jalili to withdraw, according to the official.

So far, that pressure has proved fruitless and Mr Jalili, a former nuclear negotiator with the West who is himself closely allied to Khamenei, remains in the race.

“It’s important to understand that Pezeshkian is a loyalist to the Islamic Republic,” said Jason Brodsky, policy director of United Against Nuclear Iran, an advocacy group.

“While he is labelled as reformist, he still believes in the same corrupt, repressive and incompetent regime and system that all of the other conservative and hardliner candidates believe in,” he said.

“There is an attempt by the regime to utilise him in a way that will generate turnout and try to legitimise an illegitimate election,” he added.

“The regime is betting that he will be unknown to such an extent that he won’t pose a significant threat to more preferred candidates from the IRGC and the office of the supreme leader.”

Veneer of democracy

Iran recorded 41 per cent turnout in the 2021 presidential vote, the lowest since the Islamic Republic’s founding in 1979. Much lower and the veneer of democracy will be lost altogether.

“They will take whoever Mr Khamenei wants out of the ballot box,” said Mr Sazegara. “In this election, they are not going to stamp people’s IDs after they cast their votes.

“Instead, they will use ID numbers only, and since the government holds everyone’s ID number, it will be very easy to rig the election.”

The final candidate debate on Tuesday was interrupted by a speech from Khamenei, urging the candidates to avoid “anti-revolutionary” elements in their campaigns and to “not trust the West”.

Many saw it as an attempt to remind voters he was in ultimate control.

On the streets of Tehran, most “shy” liberals remain downbeat about the prospects for change.

“I voted for Khatami and then Rouhani, hoping they could bring change, but they only worsened our situation,” one voter told The Telegraph.

“They’re all thieves,” another resident said. “They promise everything now, but once elected, they’ll kill our daughters for not wearing a headscarf.”