Irreconcilable Brexit tribes create a split-screen EU election

As we enter the last days before the European elections, neither leave nor remain has won the argument. The more noise the parties make, the less voters seem to be listening.

Our latest poll, as part of our Unlock Europe’s Majority project, shows the pro- and anti-Brexit camps are evenly matched.

Among those who intend to vote, the most strongly Eurosceptic parties, the Brexit party and Ukip, between them poll roughly 37% of the vote, the same as the collection of pro-European parties (Lib Dems, Greens, Change UK, Scottish National party and Plaid Cymru). Meanwhile, both Labour (16%) and the Conservatives (8%) hope to hang on to voters across the tribal divide. But our polling shows those hopes are forlorn – many of the voters have left already and those who have stayed behind are overwhelmingly on one side of the divide. On all the questions we asked, a large majority of Tory voters lined up consistently in the Eurosceptic tribe, while most Labour ones join the pro-Europeans. The result is a split-screen election – with two irreconcilable ways of understanding the world we live in.

The UK elects 73 members (MEPs) to the European parliament, which is made up of 751 MEPs elected by the 28 member states of the EU. The UK is split into 12 European electoral regions, and each region is represented by between three and 10 MEPs.

The constituencies are:

• South East England (10 MEPs)

• London (8)

• North West England (8)

• East of England (7)

• West Midlands (7)

• South West England (including Gibraltar) (6)

• Yorkshire and the Humber (6)

• Scotland (6)

• East Midlands (5)

• Wales (4)

• North East England (3)

• Northern Ireland (3)

You can find out who is standing for election in your area here. Current polling suggests that support for the Conservatives has slumped to 11%, less than a third of what the Nigel Farage’s new Brexit party is polling.

In England, Scotland and Wales, voters can choose to vote for one party or individual. The ballot paper lists the parties standing with the names of their potential MEPs, as well as any individuals who are standing as independent candidates. The D’Hondt method of proportional representation is used to calculate how many seats each party or individual receives. 

In Northern Ireland, the single transferable vote method is used, where each voter ranks candidates in order of preference, marking 1 beside their most preferred candidate, 2 beside their second choice, and so on. These votes are then used to allocate Northern Ireland’s three MEPs.

Those elected as MEPs on 23 May will represent the UK when the new European parliament assembles on 1 July, until such time as the UK ceases to be a member of the European Union.

It starts with the most basic question: does the EU hold its nations back or protect voters from the excesses of national governments? Exactly 41% of British voters lined up on each side of the divide – with a majority of Tories, Brexit party and Ukip voters seeing the EU as a drag on national greatness. In the other corner, most Labour, Lib Dem, Green, SNP and Change UK supporters view Brussels as a cure for the nationalist disease.

The two tribes also disagree about whether the EU is likely to fall apart in the next 20 years, with the Tories, Brexit party and Ukip backers thinking it will collapse, while the pro-Europeans (Labour, Lib Dem, Greens, Change UK, SNP) see that as very unlikely.

Voters divide in the same way over what they see as the biggest threats to the EU. A majority of Brexiters see Islamic radicalism as the biggest threat. But many pro-Europeans put the climate crisis at the top of the list (Labour, Lib Dems, SNP, Greens), while Change UK supporters believe nationalism is the biggest threat. The fact the climate emergency has hit a new level of salience for progressive voters may have been one of the factors helping the Greens in local elections. Is there a powerful pro-European argument to be made here with wide appeal?

Unsurprisingly the tribes do not agree on what constitutes a good outcome for the European election. Many Tories, Ukip and Brexit party voters want nothing less than “a revolution”. On the other hand, those supporting Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP want to turn the election into a “vote of confidence in the EU”.

The most mobilised voters are those whose parties have the clearest messages. People who claim they are most likely to vote come from the SNP (74%), the Lib Dems (72%), the Brexit party (69%) and Change UK (67%). On the other hand, much of the Lab/Con vote is thinking about switching or sitting it out. Even among the diminished ranks who still declare support for these parties, only 57% of Labour and 47% of Tories plan to vote.

The only thing that unites all sides is a sense that the political system is broken. Only 7% of people in the country believe the system works well – fewer than any other country in Europe. This broken politics reflects a breakdown of the British party system and its abject failure to express, let alone heal, social divisions. To paraphrase Oscar Wilde, to lose your voters in the local elections is a misfortune, but to lose them in the European elections as well starts to look careless.

The danger for Labour and the Tories is that many of their voters will get so used to voting for other parties they will never come back.

If pro-Europeans want to break the logjam and win voters over, they need to show that the EU can stand up for citizens’ interests and help them win back control. This might include refusing to be humiliated by Donald Trump on trade policy, being willing to defend voters from big tech, and forcing corporations to pay tax.

Rather than being naive idealists, pro-Europeans must show they can be warriors for British citizens. If they manage to do that they will not just finally resolve the British Brexit psychodrama – they can also reconnect Britain’s destiny with a project for the whole of Europe.

• Mark Leonard is the co-founder and director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, the first pan-European thinktank. His topics of focus include geopolitics and geoeconomics, China, and EU institutions