Israel-Gaza: Why the ceasefire hostage deal is stumbling at the final hurdle

This is the moment when a political drama turns into a desperate horror movie. Some 94 human beings, among them children, remain held in a city under constant bombardment, hungry, terrified and literally in the dark while their lives are horse traded.

Hopes that their 15 month ordeal would finally come to an end came on Wednesday night after bold words from US and Qatari officials proclaiming a deal had been reached.

Under an agreement that the US, Hamas, lead mediators Qatar, and most Israelis believed had been done and dusted, 33 hostages were due to be released from Hamas imprisonment in return for hundreds of Palestinians held by Israel over the next six weeks.

It was to be the first stage of a complex ceasefire process lasting months and talk started to move to the first tranche of hostages being released as early as Sunday.

The families of all those caught up in the conflict - and the rest of the world watching on - hardly dared to believe that a breakthrough might actually happen. They remained tight-lipped, refusing to celebrate until they were holding their loved ones close.

And so it proved. As the clamour from the world stage died down, Benjamin Netanyahu announced that not only had Hamas reneged on aspects of the deal, but he delayed the meeting of Israel’s security cabinet to agree the deal.

Meanwhile Israeli bombs continue to churn Gaza’s rubble and Israel killed another 48 people, according to the local health authorities.

“The Israeli cabinet will not convene until the mediators notify Israel that Hamas has accepted all elements of the agreement,” said a statement from Mr Netanyahu’s office.

The sticking point is that Hamas wants to nominate which Palestinians are released. The agreed ratio is 30 Palestinians for every hostage but 50 for female members of Israel armed forces.

No doubt many of those prisoners held by Israel have been accused, or convicted, of alleged murder and terrorism offences.

Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader who masterminded the October 7 atrocities was himself among the 1,026 prisoners held by Israel who were released in exchange for the kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit in 2011.

Israel detains about 500-700 Palestinian children each year, according to Save the Children and other humanitarian groups. Hamas doesn’t want to exchange its human currency for mere children or even low-level adults caught up in one of the constant Israeli sweeps through West Bank villages.

Hamas wants to swap its traumatised, brutalised, assets for bigger names - people they see as heroes of the movement’s struggle against the very existence of Israel itself.

This, it seems, is too much for Israel’s hard-line cabinet. Two ministers threaten to walk out of Netanyahu’s coalition and, possibly, bring his government down rather than accept the cease fire deal.

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said that he’ll walk out unless Israel resumes the war on Hamas and destroys it. Itamar Ben-Gvir, the far-right police minister has said the same. Both represent parties on the fringe of Israeli politics but tie Netanyahu’s fragile coalition together. Both are keen to see Jewish settlers return to Gaza to live as part of an expanded state of Israel.

It’s possible that Netanyahu’s premiership could survive if these extremists left his government. In any case a ceasefire deal could be agreed with whoever’s left in his war cabinet and Israel could welcome home some hostages. But, aside from the natural disgust felt at releasing convicted criminals, that seems to be a political risk that Netanyahu’s not prepared to take.

He’s likely to be under huge pressure at the moment - some those hostages are also American citizens - but Netanyahu has shown that he prizes his own political survival over almost anything else.

The ceasefire is due to begin on Sunday - so there is time for both Israel, as it is now, to fine tune the deal ceasefire deal. Equally Hamas is enjoying its status as the centre of world affairs. The drip release of only 33 hostages over six weeks and then further negotiations over freeing next batch of victims, provides the militants with an almost endless source of publicity.