Joe Biden may feel he’s won the debates but Donald Trump is not defeated yet

He didn’t shout, rant or rave. He didn’t interrupt. He even complimented the moderator. Donald Trump had listened to the advice after the first debate. This was the most presidential we’ve seen him for months. It meant last night was actually a debate in which we heard the answers, and it was clear Trump is changing his attack on Joe Biden substantially in the last few days of the campaign. It has ensured few people should dare to call this election yet, despite opinion polls putting Biden well ahead. Trump reminded us he has the capacity to surprise.

For all the lofty talk of America being the real loser the truth is Trump lost the first debate. He failed to expose Biden as old and confused — or “gonzo” — and too socialist for America. It descended quickly into an ugly, shallow affair but was utterly compelling and 73 million people watched a perfect representation of the depths to which American democracy has fallen: two old white men, short on new ideas, who loathe each other. Trump then effectively lost the second debate too, refusing to do it online after his Covid infection. In a TV battle on rival networks he did a Town Hall event on NBC instead, while Biden did one on rival ABC. In what must have been the most painful cut of all, Trump lost the ratings war. Who was the Apprentice now and who was fighting not to be fired?

Going into the final debate ahead, Biden had to not throw away his advantage. Trump had to lay gloves on him while this time keeping his dignity. Instead of “Sleepy Joe” who’s losing his mind, Trump attacked him as a “politician” who had failed to make things better for decades. The man who has been in the White House for the last four years was trying to reprise his 2016 idea of draining the swamp and being the insurgent outsider.

Biden was sharp, and again more aggressive. Expecting a slew of corruption allegations involving his son he got his attacks in first, accusing Trump of making money from China and Russia and demanding to know where his tax returns are with: “What are you hiding?” When Trump did return with allegations about Hunter Biden and Ukraine they were complex and opaque. Few voters will have understood what he was getting at, but it is possible mud sticks.

When asked what they’d say to black voters we saw another important return to Trump’s successful 2016 tactics. Biden branded Trump “the most racist President we’ve had in modern history” and promised to help black Americans accumulate wealth as well as tackle racist violence. As Channel 4 News revealed recently by obtaining the Trump campaign database at the last election, black voters who could not be won over were disproportionately categorised for a campaign of deterrence, aimed at discouraging them from voting at all.

Last night we saw Trump repeat the strategy, claiming Biden, like Hillary Clinton, had branded black men “superpredators” and helped put them in prison in huge numbers. Standing in front of a moderator born to black and Native American parents he declared he was “the least racist person in the room”.Trump has the disadvantage this time of a Democrat challenger few find offensive, but in the month I’ve just spent travelling across eight states I met precious few who could get excited about Biden either. If the Trump campaign is running another deterrence strategy to stop black and Hispanic voters bothering to vote Democrat, that will help.

With long sections of debate on health, North Korea and immigration it was starting to feel almost substantial. As Biden argued for a transition to renewable energy Trump warned Texas the Democrats would end the oil and gas industry, though there was precious little laughter when the President told his rival: “I know more about wind than you do.” There was a flash of anger from Biden over the children separated from their parents and imprisoned in cages on the Mexican border. “Good,” said Trump, when Biden said 525 kids had lost their parents.

As for facts, it seems so 20th century to spend time correcting all the mistakes and lies. The fact-checkers were busy but voters’ expectations are not high. If this debate was a draw the Biden campaign will feel they’ve won on aggregate, but Trump isn’t defeated yet. The final play seems to be: be less like Trump of the first debate and more like Trump of the last election. And remember he doesn’t even need to win. He just needs to get close enough to be able to contest it.

Krishnan Guru-Murthy is an anchor for Channel 4 News