Kent Covid variant twice as deadly as feared, report suggests

The UK variant is twice as deadly as feared, research of more than 100,000 coronavirus infections suggests.

In January, Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific officer, warned that the variant, which was discovered in Kent in September, may be 30 per cent more lethal.

But research published in the BMJ on Wednesday suggests the true figure is around 64 per cent.

Scientists from Bristol, Lancaster, Warwick and Exeter Universities compared the outcomes of 54,000 people infected with the UK variant with the same number infected with the original virus between Oct 1 and Jan 29.

They matched the groups by age, sex, ethnicity, area and social deprivation, to make sure deaths were not being caused by other factors, such as extra pressure on the NHS in a particular trust, or any underlying increased risk.

In the first peer reviewed study into the mortality rate of the UK variant, researchers found that the rate of dying for those infected by the original virus was 2.5 in 1000, but rose to 4.1 in 1,000 for the UK variant, an increase of 64 per cent.

“The variant of concern, in addition to being more transmissible, seems to be more lethal,” the authors conclude.

In the last few months there have been mixed reports about whether the UK variant was more deadly.

The government’s COVID-19 Clinical Information Network (CO-CIN) has consistently found no evidence that the UK variant increases the risk of death. Imperial College suggested it may be 29 per cent more deadly, while Public Health Scotland (PHS) suggested a nine per cent increase and Public Health England (PHE) put the figure at 65 per cent.

At a press conference, shown below, on January 22, Sir Patrick said the death rate was around 30 per cent higher.

Commenting on the research, Dr Simon Clarke, Associate Professor in Cellular Microbiology at the University of Reading, said: “While it is important to note that absolute risk remained low this is substantially higher than the 30-40 per cent possible increase reported by Sir Patrick Vallance on 22nd January, which was dismissed as unlikely in some quarters.

“It is now well established that the Kent variant is more transmissible; it has come to dominate in the UK and it is increasing in prevalence in other parts of the developed world.

“This increased lethality, in addition to the increased transmissibility, means that this version of the virus presents a substantial challenge to healthcare systems and policy makers. It also makes it even more important people get vaccinated when called.”

However some experts said other factors could have skewed the data such as the time of year and underlying illnesses.

Dr Julian Tang, Honorary Associate Professor/Clinical Virologist, University of Leicester, said: “I’m still not yet very convinced by these results.

“Clinical teams know that the coldest winter temperatures occurring in Jan/Feb can exacerbate all the comorbidities that predispose to more severe outcomes of Covif-19.

“So without the careful matching of comorbidities in the variant and variant arms, these differential clinical severity model outcomes are still questionable.”

“We really need to revisit this in Spring to account for the cold weather factor - and there are also other seasonal variables related to shorter daylight hours, such as melatonin levels that may impact related to the host immune system.”

Researchers said the increased morality may be linked to increased viral replication.