Kent General Election YouGov survey shows expected results in every seat if vote was today

With the General Election now just one month away, new data has revealed what the results for each Kent seat would be if the election was held today. The latest MRP projection from YouGov outlines that, today, Labour would land a 194-seat majority at the election, securing a total of 422 wins.

If this were to be the case, Keir Starmer’s majority would be larger than that seen by Tony Blair in 1997. It would also be the second largest majority in Britain’s political history, following Stanley Baldwin’s 210 in 1924.

Overall, the Conservatives would be set to lose a total 223 seats, leaving the Tories with 140. This would be the party’s worst performance at an election in over a century when in 1906 then-prime minister Arthur Balfour lost 246 seats.

Read more: Calls for first aid training improvements after infant chokes at Kent nursery

Read more: Radio host withdraws from race to be Kent Tory candidate

YouGov’s MRP (Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification) utilises data from nearly 60,000 respondents to see what would happen if the general election were happening right now, based on people’s vote intentions as they currently stand. YouGov adds: “It is not a forecast, but is designed to give a detailed, seat-by-seat look at the British political landscape as we head toward 4 July.”

Kent has 18 political constituencies and the MRP has given an indication into which way each could fall. For each constituency, we have listed the party of the current holder, the party of the predicted holder and whether there is a change or not in the holder of the seat.

This data suggests that Labour could just secure a majority of the seats in Kent, taking 10 of the 18. With the Conservatives still retaining eight however, and a number of these seats on a knife-edge, it is still all to play for.

A total of 131 seats across the nation are considered to be a tossup, meaning that the winning party's lead is fewer than five points. Of these, 87 are contested between Labour and Conservatives including several in Kent such as Herne Bay and Sandwich, Ashford and Chatham and Aylesford.

The MRP also predicts that the Liberal Democrats would replace the SNP as the third party of British politics, a title it has not held since 2010. Several key figures could also lose their seats in this prediction, such as defence secretary Grant Shapp, education secretary Gillian Keegan and former cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg.

The Green Party would take two seats overall, their highest total to date, while Reform UK would win none. This could change however, following the recent news that Nigel Farage has taken over as party leader.

Get more news from KentLive straight to your inbox for free HERE.