Labour 'biggest ever' landslide prediction for Birmingham and Black Country in final election poll

-Credit: (Image: YouGov)
-Credit: (Image: YouGov)

The last major General Election poll before voting opens is predicting a landslide victory for the Labour Party, with urban Birmingham and the Black Country turning red.

According to the YouGov poll, the next Parliament would have 431 seats for Labour, 102 for the Conservatives, 72 for the Liberal Democrats, 2 for the Greens and 3 for Reform UK. The SNP would have 18 seats in Scotland, and Plaid Cymru would have 3 in Wales.

Locally, Birmingham, Wolverhampton, Walsall and Sandwell seats would form a Labour 'island'. Starmer target seats of Stourbridge, Redditch, Worcester city, Cannock Chase and Lichfield would turn red, while Sutton Coldfield, Tamworth, Aldridge-Brownhills and Bromsgrove would just about be Tory holds.

READ MORE: Talking poo, Gaza and child poverty with Jess Phillips as polling day looms

But the Yougov poll does not account for the likely impact of Independent and Workers Party candidates standing in multiple city seats on a pro-Palestine ticket, leaving some uncertainty as activists prepare their final push locally to get out their supporters. Labour insiders say they are taking nothing for granted but there is growing confidence that they will have weathered the storm of an onslaught from Independents allied to either Jeremy Corbyn or George Galloway over the Gaza issue.

Some of the biggest names in Conservative politics would lose their seats under this projection, including 16 of the 26 cabinet ministers still standing, including Chancellor Jeremy Hunt.

Said YouGov: "What we can be absolutely confident upon is the winner. Labour are set to win, and set to win big. Even at the lowest end of our prediction Labour would have 391 seats and a majority of 132. At the top end of our prediction they would have 466 seats - a crushing majority of 282. Our range of possibilities goes from a large Labour majority to an exceptionally large Labour majority.

"And, it is worth saying, election day itself is still to come. Many votes have been cast by post, but the majority will be cast on the day. Some people will make their minds up at the last minute, the efforts of party volunteers leafleting and knocking up on the day do make a difference. In a projection when many seats are balanced on a knife edge, that itself could make a difference in many individual races."

If the poll is accurate, Sir Keir Starmer would become the most successful Labour leader in history in electoral terms. Under the pollster's margin of error, The Labour Party's seats could range from 391 to 466, and the Tories from 78 to 129. By contrast, it would be the worst Conservative performance for a generation.

The Lib Dems could range from 57 to 87 seats, while the SNP range from eight to 34, Reform from zero to 14, Greens from one to four, and Plaid one to four. The pollster interviewed 47,758 voters in Great Britain between 19 June to 2 July to get the figures.

Among the interesting predictions are:

Redditch - Labour gain, with Reform taking a 20% vote share

Lichfield - Labour gain by 3%, with Reform taking a 21% vote share

Aldridge-Brownhills - Conservative hold by 8% with Reform taking a 20% vote share

Sutton Coldfield - Conservative hold by 8%, with Reform taking a 14% vote share

Dudley - Labour gain by 8%, with Reform taking 18% of the vote share

Bromsgrove - Conservative hold by 2%, within the pollsters' margin of error, with Reform taking a 26% vote share and the Lib Dems 14%