Will Labour win the general election? Latest odds and polls

Yahoo News UK breaks down what the polls are telling us about Labour's chances.

Ellen Manning and James Cheng-Morris
Updated ·3-min read
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer addresses an audience of Labour Party members and supporters during a rally at the Royal Horticultural Halls in central London, whilst campaigning for next week's General Election on July 4. Picture date: Saturday June 29, 2024. (Photo by Stefan Rousseau/PA Images via Getty Images)
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer will lead his party to a landslide, according to a new poll. (PA)

Labour is on course for a landslide in the general election that would eclipse the party’s historic win in 1997, a new poll has claimed.

The poll of 34,558 people by Survation found that a Labour landslide is now “99%” certain – with the party on course to win around 484 seats in the 4 July poll. If accurate, this would be more than the 418 seats Labour won in 1997, when Tony Blair was leader.

Even at the lower end of the seating model, Labour would win 447 seats, according to the Survation, with the upper end putting the party on 517 seats. The Tories would slump to 64 seats, the polling suggests, putting them only three seats above the Liberal Democrats.

If the polling proves to be close to reality, the Tories could feasibly see themselves in third place in terms of seats. In this scenario, the Lib Dems could become the official opposition party in the Commons.

The poll predicts that prime minister Rishi Sunak would keep his Richmond and Northallerton seat – but several Tory big beasts would lose theirs, including chancellor Jeremy Hunt, defence secretary Grant Shapps and education secretary Gillian Keegan.

The poll also predicts Nigel Farage winning the Essex constituency of Clacton, where his probability of winning is around 95%. His party, Reform UK, has a vote share at a model average 12.2%, according to the poll.

YouGov's voting intention tracker (see chart, below), which has been regularly surveying voters since January 2020, demonstrates the extent to which support for the Tories has collapsed – and backing for Labour has ascended.

Starmer's party has been ahead in the polls since the end of 2021, when the Partygate scandal first emerged.

YouGov’s voting intention tracker shows the differences in the fortunes of the major parties since 2020. (YouGov)
YouGov’s voting intention tracker shows the differences in the fortunes of the major parties since 2020. (YouGov)

Watch: Tories 'wheeling out Boris Johnson' is evidence they will not change, says Sir Keir Starmer

The latest results had Labour on 37%, compared to the Tories on 20%.

Despite six weeks of campaigning, the Conservatives have not managed to shift the gap between itself and Labour. Reform UK have also seen an in increase in support since Farage announced his decision to stand in Clacton and to take over the leadership of the party.

As of 3 July, Oddschecker, a website which compares odds across different bookmakers, had Labour at 1/100 to win the most seats. To put those numbers into context, a win is so likely that a £10 bet would return just £10.10 – a profit of 10p.

The site has the Conservatives at 150/1 to win the most seats: an event bookmakers see as so unlikely that a £10 bet would return £1,510.

PURFLEET, ENGLAND - MAY 16: Labour Party Leader Keir Starmer stands in front of a screen displaying his six election pledges during the launch event on May 16, 2024 in Purfleet, England. Labour Leader Keir Starmer pledges to deliver economic stability, cut NHS waiting times, launch a new Border Security Command, set up Great British Energy and recruit 6,500 new teachers if Labour win the next General Election. (Photo by Leon Neal/Getty Images)
Experts, polls and odds are pointing to a Labour victory. (Getty Images)

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