The likely future political map of Wales revealed as Tories face oblivion

Ruth Mosalski

4 June 2024 at 4:03 am·4-min read

The Conservatives and Plaid both face a devastating loss of seats in the General Election, the latest political poll shows. The two parties are on course to win just two seats each in Wales as Labour dominates the future political landscape of the nation.

A major poll by YouGov, which uses a model that has correctly called the results of the general elections in 2017 and 2019, shows that Labour is on course to win 28 of the 32 seats across Wales on Thursday, July 4. The Conservatives who currently have 12 of the 40 seats in the current electoral map would be left with just two and Plaid would go down from four to two seats.

Senior Conservative figures including Welsh Secretary David TC Davies, chief whip Simon Hart and former cabinet minister Alun Cairns would all lose their seats. This is what the electoral map of Wales would look like after July 4 if YouGov's MRP modelling is correct:

YouGov's projected policial map of Wales

Across the UK, the YouGov poll projects a Labour majority of 194 seats. That is a bigger majority than any time in the last 100 years. Rishi Sunak's Conservative party would have 140 seats and the Lib Dems would see quadruple their seat total to 48. The SNP would see its tally crash to 17 seats while the Green Party would have two.

In Wales, Plaid Cymru are on course to win Ceredigion Preseli and the Dwyfor Meirionydd seat. The polling puts the Tories on track f to return MPs in Montgomery and Glyndwr and Brecon and Radnorshire.

A separate The ITV Wales/YouGov poll of 1,066 adults in Wales who were questioned between May 30 and June 3 shows that since the last equivalent poll in December more people in Wales intend to vote for Labour in a Westminster general election. The number backing Labour in December was 42%. It is now up 3% to 45%. Support for the Conservatives has dropped 2% in the same time period. Voters intending to back Plaid Cymru have also fallen by 3% with support for Reform UK and the Green Party both up slightly by 1% each.

The ITV Wales/YouGov poll also found 57% of people thought the First Minister Vaughan Gething was doing badly in his role. In December, when people were asked the equivalent about Mark Drakeford, the equivalent figure was 49%.

You can see more details from that poll here

What the YouGov poll says about each seat in Wales

Ceredigion Preseli - Safe Plaid Cymru (Labour in second but a long way back)
Dwyfor Meirionydd - Likely Plaid Cymru Labour in second)
Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr - Lean Conservatives (Labour close behind in second)
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe - Tossup Conservatives (Lib Dems neck and neck)
Caerfyrddin - Tossup Labour (narrowly ahead of Plaid)
Ynys Mon - Lean Labour (Plaid Cymru in second)
Mid and South Pembrokeshire - Lean Labour (Conservatives in second)
Gower - Likely Labour (Conservatives in second)
Monmouthshire - Likely Labour (Conservatives in second)
Vale of Glamorgan - Likely Labour (Conservatives in second)
Bridgend - Likely Labour (Conservatives in second)
Llanelli - Likely Labour (Plaid in second)
Clwyd North - Likely Labour (Conservatives in second)
Clwyd East - Likely Labour (Conservatives in second)
Bangor Aberconwy - Likely Labour (Conservatives in second)
Alyn and Deeside - Likely Labour (Conservatives in second)
Wrexham - Likely Labour (Conservatives in second)
Blaenau Gwent - Safe Labour (Reform in second)
Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare - Safe Labour (Plaid in second)
Torfaen- safe Labour (Conservatives in second)
Caerphilly - safe Labour (Plaid Cymru in second)
Pontypridd - safe Labour (Plaid Cymru in second)
Newport East - safe Labour (Conservatives in second)
Cardiff East - safe Labour (Conservatives in second)
Cardiff West - safe Labour (Conservatives in second)
Cardifff South and Penarth - safe Labour (Conservatives in second)
Cardiff West - safe Labour (Conservatives in second)
Swansea West - safe Labour (Conservatives in second)
Neath and Swansea East - safe Labour (Cons and Plaid far back)
Rhondda and Ogmore - safe Labour (Plaid in second)
Aberafan Maesteg - safe Labour (Plaid in second)

If the YouGov MRP poll is to be believed it would be Labour's best night in many, many years. In Wales it would not quite see the Conservatives wiped out, as they were in 1997 and 2001, but it would constitute a rout nonetheless.

The poll puts Ynys Mon, considered a three-way split between the Conservatives, Plaid, and Labour, as leaning towards Labour with 35.1% ahead of Plaid with 26.4%. Brecon, Radnor, and Cwm Tawe – a newly-redrawn constituency – is a "toss up" between the Conservatives and Lib Dems. Montgomery and Glyndwr, the new version of the former Montgomeryshire seat held by Craig Williams in the last Parliament, is leaning towards the Conservatives (32.5%) with Labour not far behind on 27.4%.

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YouGov's projected policial map of Wales

What the YouGov poll says about each seat in Wales

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