London’s Europeans face an agonising wait to decide whether to leave the UK

As Brexit talks go into a decisive phase and the Government plans future immigration laws, we must not forget about more than a million European Londoners who are yet to be guaranteed their right to stay after Brexit.

Over 818 mornings, afternoons and evenings since the referendum day in 2016, many of them have been continuously asking themselves a crucial question: are they still welcome in this city that so many call home?

Unlike their British friends, for many of the Europeans Brexit already happened — even if not legally — on the very morning of June 24, 2016, when they were put on notice and faced with the challenge of adapting to a whole new reality.

Since then many constantly micro-analyse their everyday decisions. They worry if they should sign a lease or a mobile phone contract that goes beyond the date of Brexit, or perhaps postpone their application for a mortgage to finally buy that flat they had been thinking about.

What if they make a commitment — be it legal, financial or emotional — that they will have to break, whether they like it or not, because of Brexit? What would the consequences be? Instead of being able to plan their future here as they like, they often focus on minimising the risks — and having a safe way out should things go wrong.

After all, two years and three months after the referendum and with only 190 days until Brexit d-day, there are still no legally binding guarantees for EU nationals that would cover all outcomes of the negotiations, including a no-deal scenario. This hardly inspires confidence in the process.

I have seen first-hand how many of my closest friends — both fellow Poles and other Europeans living in London — have been affected by these two years of unprecedented uncertainty.

Dozens of them were looking for job opportunities outside the UK, and some indeed decided it was time to call it a day and moved away. Every couple of weeks an invitation to someone’s leaving do lands in my inbox.

Others — if eligible — are applying for British residence or even citizenship (the latter currently considered to be the best insurance policy against Brexit), spending endless hours compiling documentation for the rather humiliating process of having to prove their worth to this country.

Once the settled status-scheme system finally launches in March next year, all European Union nationals will have to go through a similar, even if simplified, ordeal.

While paying for both the application and some legal advice, they sigh heavily when being asked to confirm in writing — and I am not making this up — that they have never been involved in war crimes, genocide or terrorist activities, but instead contribute thousands of pounds in taxes every year and therefore deserve to be graciously allowed to stay.

Whatever their original reason was to settle in London — be it pure economics, the prospect of personal development, the hope of adventure or genuine love of the city — it is now not them but the immigration officials who will decide whether they are good enough to stay. This loss of ownership of the decision changes everything.

In the past few years of my work covering the Polish migration to the UK, one sentence would come back again and again in personal stories of people who moved here and invested their future in Britain. “I came here for a week, a month, a year, and I am still here — several years later.”

Over the years they occasionally questioned their decision but would draw some comfort from the knowledge that they could easily change their mind. The free movement of people always offered an easy way out — and back in, if ever needed.

This time it feels different, more permanent. They will still be able to move out, but potentially with no easy return. Particularly if — as hinted by the Prime Minister and the Home Secretary — the future EU migrants will be subject to the same migration law, including quotas and salary thresholds, as people from the rest of the world.

Now, probably for the first time — particularly for those who came after the EU enlargement of 2004, including some 250,000 Polish Londoners — they will have to make a potentially life-changing decision: to stay or go.

This lonely period of more than 800 days of uncertainty makes many of them think twice about the wider costs of migration, too — often extortionate, also emotionally — and possible alternatives to London.

What about the cost of separation and personal sacrifices they make when living so far away from their ageing parents or friends? Or what if they can move elsewhere, where they would feel more welcome and potentially get a nicer flat, too? Sure, they will be missing London’s buzz, but perhaps it is just easier?

As the Brexit deadline looms, the question of the future of EU nationals becomes increasingly urgent.

Will the European Londoners patiently wait for the outcome of the negotiations and until the much-heralded, but still not fully operational, settled status scheme next year, optimistically hoping that everything will be just fine?

Or alternatively, will they crack under this growing pressure and leave? Not because they wanted to but — as so many would see it — because they jumped before they were pushed?

These decisions are being taken by Europeans of all nationalities every day as we get closer to Brexit, perhaps even as you read these words — and they will most certainly shape the London of tomorrow.

• Jakub Krupa is a Polish journalist based in London.