Map shows latest general election predictions for Wales which will devastate the Conservatives

-Credit: (Image: Getty Images)
-Credit: (Image: Getty Images)

The general election is taking place on Thursday, July 4 and after it, we can already guarantee Wales will look different because the number of constituencies is changing from 40 to 32. There is widely expected to be big changes in who holds the seats in Wales too.

Latest polling shows the make-up of Wales, as projected now. Pollsters Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now have conducted a new large-scale MRP (Multi-level Regression and Poststratification) poll. It is a type of polling which has successfully predicted the make-up of parliament after the last two British general elections. It gives the estimated result in each of the new Westminster constituencies.

More than 10,000 people were asked questions between May 20 and 27. Figures show that in total Labour would have 493 seats, with the Tories taking 72, with the Lib Dems in third with 39 seats, way up from the eight they secured in 2019. Plaid Cymru would take four seats. Reform UK would not get any, with the Greens taking two and the SNP taking 22. At the last election in 2019, which was under the previous boundaries, the Conservatives had 376 seats. Labour had 197 at the 2019 election.

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For Wales, it shows Labour would take 26 seats of the 32 available seats with the Conservatives taking three - marginally better than shown in other polls conducted before the general election was called. It repeats previous predictions, that the Tories will keep Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe as well as Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr, but also says David TC Davies will keep his seat in Monmouth.

Plaid Cymru would get three under these projections, taking Caerfyrddin as well as Dwyfor Meirionnydd and Ceredigion Preseli. It would be the worst electoral performance for the Conservative Party in Wales since 2005, where the Tory seat total was also three.

How Wales looked after the 2019 election with 40 constituencies:

How this poll projects Wales will look after the 2024 general election with the new 32 constituencies:

Martin Baxter, founder and CEO of Electoral Calculus said: "Our latest MRP poll, the first of the election cycle, will be more unhappy reading for the Conservatives. They are predicted to lose three quarters of their seats in Wales, with Labour likely to reap most of the benefit, picking up an extra eight seats on the 2019 election. Plaid Cymru are also set to gain one seat from the Conservatives, in Caerfyrddin.

"Should Plaid Cymru successfully beat the Conservatives in Caerfyrddin, they will be unseating Simon Hart, Chief Whip of the House of Commons. Hart is one of the many cabinet members who look vulnerable to losing their seats in the election, and we are currently predicting a number of high-profile Conservative casualties on election night. However, with a long way to go until people cast their votes, the Conservatives will be hoping to regain lost support over the course of the campaign in order to minimise their losses."

Simon Hart MP
Simon Hart is a former Secretary of State for Wales -Credit:Simon Hart MP

Electoral Calculus say the figures indicate a substantial Labour landslide, with Labour's Sir Keir Starmer gaining a majority of over 300 seats at Westminster. The Conservatives would remain the official opposition but with fewer than 100 seats. It forecasts a Labour victory larger than Tony Blair's landslide in 1997 and would be the largest win by any party in modern parliamentary history, except for 1931. The 72 seats for the Conservatives would be their worst result since at least 1900.

Allowing for tactical voting, the Labour majority drops to 302, and the Conservatives are only just ahead of the Lib Dems by seven seats. Key cabinet figures would lose their seats, including Welsh secretary David TC Davies who is a candidate in Monmouthshire.

The pollsters say the Liberal Democrats tend to do better when the Conservatives do badly, and are predicted to win 39 seats. This parliamentary comeback would bring them closer to the seat totals that they enjoyed from 1997 to 2015.

Eighteen Conservative cabinet members are likely to lose their seats. They are: Oliver Dowden, James Cleverly, Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, Kemi Badenoch, Claire Coutinho, Mel Stride, Gillian Keegan, Mark Harper, David Davies, Victoria Prentis, Esther McVey, Andrew Mitchell, Johnny Mercer (all to Labour). The Lib Dems would take the seats being contested by Alex Chalk and Michael Tomlinson. The party's chief whip in Westminster and Caerfyrddin candidate Simon Hart's seat would go to Plaid Cymru, the pollsters project.