‘He’s nice but we’ve been Tory too long’: The Richmond voters holding Rishi’s fate in their hands

Ten o’clock on a Thursday morning in Richmond, North Yorkshire, and the town’s marketplace is already nearly full with cars. Shoppers equipped with appropriate bags for life are heading purposefully to stock up on groceries and the tourists – a mixture of ramblers in practical clothing and retirees who’ve come to wander round the pretty Georgian town – are popping in and out of the shops and cafes that line the square. Overhead, the sun is gloriously – finally – shining and in the distance the hills that cradle this golden-stoned enclave on the edge of the Yorkshire Dales are a hazy blue.

It could be a picture postcard for prosperity, but this is where the Prime Minister is also fighting for his political life. Rishi Sunak was voted in as MP for Richmond in 2015, succeeding William Hague, also leader of the Conservative Party once, who had held the seat since 1989. Richmond has voted in a succession of Tories since 1910, and was until recently the Conservatives’ safest seat in the UK (Mr Sunak has a majority of 27,210).

But a major opinion poll conducted for The Telegraph suggests that this true blue town might be about to change colour. According to the Savanta and Electoral Calculus polling analysis, Mr Sunak is predicted to lose his seat to Labour – although this particular race is among those Savanta says are still in the balance, given the close margins. And a day spent in Richmond and its nearby neighbour, the bustling town of Northallerton where the votes will be counted on July 4, gives little sense of where the needle will eventually land.

In Richmond, the first few people I talk to are clear that their vote will go to the Prime Minister next month. “I’ve got every confidence in him – he’s a lovely young man,” says Mavis Dozéy, 88, who is buying vegetables in Neeps & Tatties greengrocers on the marketplace. “People have short memories – they’re too quick to criticise – but he’s pulled us through some very sticky moments.”

“I will be voting Conservative regardless of what everyone’s saying,” says Alison, a sprightly 83-year-old who has lived in the area for 40 years and has always been a Tory voter. “He’s done a lot of good in these parts.”

It’s clear that the Prime Minister is well-liked as a local MP: he is a familiar face in the area, and seems to have visited almost every shop in the marketplace, and had a drink in every pub. Several people mention his work to improve hospital services in nearby Northallerton, his support for local farmers and a basic understanding that life up here is very different to the Westminster bubble – as well as the fact that if you email him, “you actually get an email back”.

As Vicky, a nurse who works in Northallerton Friarage Hospital, and plans to vote Conservative next month puts it, “Rishi goes to point-to-points and racing – you don’t see a lot of MPs doing that. It’s a way of life that a lot of people don’t understand, and that Labour would change.”

There is, however, no great overall enthusiasm for the party that Mr Sunak leads – or indeed, for their local MP in his current role. One lifelong Labour voter, enjoying a cup of tea in Caffè Nero on Northallerton’s high street, admires Sunak as chancellor but thinks he’s been a poor political operator as PM. Alison in Richmond agrees. “He’s what I call a lightweight,” she says. “The trouble is that a nice man doesn’t necessarily rule very well. You‘ve got to have somebody with a bit more oomph.” Or, as Tina Oxley, a housekeeper at the Friarage puts it, “He’s too nice for that position. It doesn’t suit him because you have to be ruthless. It’s a shame.”

The attitude of most Conservative voters in these parts seems to be of the “better the devil you know” variety when it comes to party politics – as well as a general distrust of what a Labour government might mean, especially when it comes to the tax burden.

“Realistically, they’re all as bad as each other,” says Ian Crisop, 58, an accountant who is collecting his vegetable box from Neeps & Tatties and describes all the political leaders as “a bunch of clowns”.

His vote, he says, “probably will be Conservative” but only because, “I’ve always believed the opposition needs to have a certain number of seats to be effective and it could be political suicide if you do the wrong thing.” He has, he said, received one leaflet from the Lib Dems through his letterbox, but nobody has come knocking on his door.

Could the Lib Dems make gains in Richmond? Driving into the town, I see several orange signs in people’s front gardens and several people mention the relatively strong Lib Dem presence in the area. Nigel Farage’s name also comes up – mostly to be met with a roll of the eyes and a nose-wrinkle – although there is a general consensus that a vote for either party would be a wasted vote.

“That [voting Reform] is just like voting Labour,” says Julie Hills, 69, who has just done her weekly grocery shop in M&S. “I’d love to vote Green or Lib Dem but it feels like a waste,” says Abbi, 32, a primary school teacher who voted Tory last time round but is undecided as to who she will plump for next month. Like everyone else, she says “locally, he [Rishi] has done good stuff. He shows his face at things.” She’s not sold on Keir Starmer, she adds, “But my problem is that whoever gets in, they’re not going to do what they say they’re going to.”

Might Becky Smith be one voter who could tip the balance? Smith, 51, who has lived in Richmond for 15 years, has always been a Tory, but thinks the country could do with a change and, although she admits she doesn’t know who the Labour candidate is, plans to put her cross next to Tom Wilson’s box next month.

About Sunak himself, she is nothing but complimentary. “He’s a nice man – a family man,” she says, adding that the PM has been into the dry cleaners where she works and is “lovely to speak to”. It is, she says, “about the politics, not him as a person. We’ve [the country has] been Tory a long time now and there’s not been many benefits. People are really struggling.”

She does not, however, think her vote will change things in these parts. “This area will stay Tory,” she says firmly. “I don’t think he’ll lose in Richmond.”

At the end of a long day and multiple conversations with a range of voters, it is hard to disagree with her.