Nine Things To Expect In The Next Five Years

We've had an election, the Conservatives have won, the SNP did well - and everyone else lost. Badly.

But what does it all mean and what can we expect now, other than for the Conservatives to enact their manifesto in full?

Here are nine things the country can expect in the coming five years.

1) We might leave the European Union

David Cameron has promised a referendum by the end of 2017. He has repeatedly threatened if he doesn't secure reform in Europe he will be prepared to campaign against membership of the EU.

It has sparked concern from big business. Last month HSBC, Britain's biggest firm, warned of the "economic uncertainty" surrounding "continuing UK membership of the EU" and threatened to relocate headquarters.

2) The UK could become a federal state - a big offer on Scotland

Fresh from the success of the SNP and a now significant tartan bloc in Westminster, Nicola Sturgeon is likely to include a second Scottish Referendum in her party manifesto for the Scottish elections next year.

Mr Cameron is likely to want to see this off. He has hinted of a big offer on Scotland – will he go to "devo max" or even to the point of federalism?

He will also have to deal with the significant number of his MPs, who will want English Votes for English Laws and will likely want to see Scotland’s financial settlement dramatically reduced.

3) Economic recovery is not a done deal

It’s certainly not globally. The UK's recovery depends on a worldwide upturn.

Also remember just before the election figures showed economic growth was at its lowest for three years – although these are expected to be revised up.

While initially the City has breathed a sigh of relief at the return of a majority Tory government, there are significant fears over the EU referendum and the prospect of a second vote in Scotland.

4) There will be cuts. Very painful cuts

The Conservatives have said they will save £1 in every £100. They refused to explain where the £12bn of welfare cuts they have promised will come from. But come they will.

A recent leaked document suggested they might consider increasing so-called bedroom tax, scrapping statutory maternity pay and toughening up fitness-to-work tests.

5) Taxes will not rise

Mr Cameron was so insistent about this he promised to pass a law so VAT, national insurance and income tax cannot increase for five years.

6) Backbench rebellions

He may well be only the second Prime Minister ever to have increased his majority while in Government, but Mr Cameron will still have to run the country with the slimmest of slim majorities.

Remember John Major’s 1992 majority? Well, it’s slimmer than that.

As Tony Blair adviser Jonathan Powell put it: "Relying on nutcases on their backbenches is going to be a complete nightmare."

7) The Left must reinvent itself

Labour and the Liberal Democrats have been all but ruined by this election.

The price the Lib Dems have paid for their time in coalition cannot be overstated. Whoever takes over from Nick Clegg will have to decide how to reposition the party and after their spell in power it might be all but impossible to regain the mantle of the party of protest.

As Mr Clegg said in his resignation speech: "Liberalism has lost."

Labour arguably faces a tougher task. Former spin doctor Alastair Campbell wrote in his blog that the party needed to do a lot of "soul-searching" to work out why it had gone from being a "dominant force across UK politics over a decade and more, to where we are today".

They will need to start by picking their new leader very carefully. There is a compelling centre-Left case to be made, but Mr Miliband failed to convey it.

8) David Cameron will face coup after challenge after coup

The Prime Minister has already fired the starting gun on his own party's leadership challenge. He's said he will serve no more than two terms and named his possible successors – Boris Johnson, Theresa May and George Osborne.

So expect plotting – especially over the EU. Nothing splits the Conservatives like the EU and both Ms May and Mr Johnson are notably more Eurosceptic than Mr Cameron.

There will be no shortage of fickle backbenchers ready to take sides.

9) First-past-the-post head-scratching

We have a system where the vote share does not reflect the seats won. UKIP won the third most votes, but only one seat.

Stacked another way: 1.4 million people voted SNP and the party took 56 seats. A combined total of four million people voted UKIP and Green (three million and one million respectively) and they ended up with a single seat each.

Britain rejected a change to the voting system in a referendum in 2011. Will people still feel the same?