OPINION - Partygate analysis: Single fine for Boris Johnson relieves the pressure, but PM still has Sue Gray report to come

Boris Johnson may still face searching questions over his leadership in the weeks ahead but the Met’s conclusion of its partygate investigation on Thursday has taken a lot of the heat out of the crisis.

Had the Prime Minister received more fines in addition to the one he received for attending a surprise birthday party in Downing Street in June 2020 then the calls from some Tory MPs for him to face a leadership challenge will have grown louder.

But the force’s decision to wrap up its Operation Hillman probe with just one fixed penalty notice for the PM out of 126 has taken the pressure off for now with all attention now focused on the publication of the full report by the senior civil servant Sue Gray.

Despite the palpable relief in Downing Street over the Met’s announcement, the Gray report still poses a risk for No10. Even the partial publication of the hundreds of emails and photographs gathered by Ms Gray and her team, and later handed over to the Met, could cause acute embarrassment for the Prime Minister and his team.

One of the Prime Minister’s allies admitted on Thursday afternoon that the Gray report will be “profoundly uncomfortable” but added that it was likely to be more uncomfortable for the civil service than Mr Johnson.

That, of course, will lead to questions over Mr Johnson’s leadership and why he allowed a culture of partying at the top of Government when the rest of the coutnry was in lockdown.

Mr Johnson’s opponents in the Tory party say that will be the moment when the majority of Conservative MPs who have said they would wait for the Gray report before deciding on the PM’s future will have to make a decision.

“A lot of them said publicly to their constituents that they would not make a decision until they had all the facts,” said one Tory insider. “Well that moment is almost here and those sitting on the fence will have to make up their minds.”

Perhaps sensing the story was shifting, the Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer - himself facing difficult questions over ‘beergate’ - responded to the Met’s conclusion of its inquiries by calling again for the Prime Minister to resign but for the culture of his administration, rather than his own law breaking.

Having attacked the Government so hard over parties his own position is now in the hands of Durham Police who are investigating whether he broke Covid laws by having a beer and curry while campaigning last May. Sir Keir has said he will stand down if he is fined.

Mr Johnson’s allies hope the end of the police’s partygate probe will allow the Government to focus on the cost of living crisis, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the NHS.

“I’m pleased that it’s all done,” Policing Minister Kit Malthouse said. “The Prime Minister has apologised for the cake incident and I hope we can now move on to some of the really pressing issues, dealing with NHS backlogs...driving crime down...and leadership in this extremely challenging environment we find ourselves with a war on continental Europe.”

But even if Mr Johnson can survive the publication of the Gray report, his future is still far from certain.

Mr Johnson is coming under growing pressure from his own MPs to do more to tackle the cost of living crisis with inflation soaring to a 40 year high this week.

Local election results earlier this month were at the lower end of Conservative party expectations with nearly 500 councillors losing their seats across the UK and flagship London boroughs Westminster, Wandsworth and Barnet falling to Labour for the first time in decades.

And with two crucial by-elections coming up in Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton next month, Tory MPs will have another chance to assess whether Mr Johnson is still an electoral asset or a liability at the ballot box.