PM’s ‘incompetence’ may help Lib Dems win North Shropshire, says Davey

Voters in byelection triggered by Owen Paterson resignation are turning against Tories, says Lib Dem leader

The Liberal Democrats are in with a chance of taking the ultra-safe Tory seat of North Shropshire, as “soft Conservative” voters turn against Boris Johnson, party leader Ed Davey has claimed.

The seat has been vacant since Owen Paterson resigned, after being found to have broken House of Commons rules on paid lobbying. A byelection is being held on 16 December.

The Lib Dem hopes of challenging the Conservatives in their home territory were boosted after they overturned a majority of 16,000 in the Buckinghamshire seat of Chesham and Amersham earlier this year.

Winning North Shropshire would represent an even more dramatic electoral earthquake, however. Paterson’s majority in 2019 was almost 23,000, and the Lib Dems took just 10% of the vote, coming behind Labour.

Nevertheless, hopeful party strategists point to a stronger performance at last year’s local elections, where they gained seats at the expense of the Conservatives.

They also claim detailed canvassing data is stronger than expected, putting them potentially within reach of a win, particularly if they can persuade Labour and Green voters to back them.

Related: ‘What he’s done is corrupt’: voters welcome Owen Paterson’s exit

“It’s tougher than Chesham and Amersham, but we’ve made a really good start, we’ve got a really good candidate,” said party leader Ed Davey.

He has already made three visits to North Shropshire to support the Lib Dem candidate, Helen Morgan. Despite the byelection having been triggered by Paterson’s disgrace, Davey said sleaze has barely come up in conversations with voters.

Instead, he said they want to talk about long waits for local ambulance services, the NHS – and potholes.

“What we’re finding is that there’s a lot of soft Tory voters out there: much softer than we expected. There’s a feeling the Tories have taken them for granted. They’re very open to the idea of voting for us,” he said.

“Without prompting, we’re finding people saying on the doorstep, my neighbour had to wait eight hours for an ambulance, or my sister had to wait two hours.”

“It’s much more about Boris Johnson’s incompetence, than sleaze,” he added. “We’re really clear that the LibDems are the challengers: if you want to send a message to Boris Johnson, vote for us.”

One canvasser reported that Johnson’s “Peppa Pig” speech earlier this week had come up, with voters mentioning it as the final straw that meant they could no longer support the Tories.

The Conservative candidate is Birmingham-based lawyer Neil Shastri-Hurst, an army veteran and former surgeon who has been supported on recent canvassing sessions by Conservative chair Oliver Dowden.

Shastri-Hunt has made what he called a “cast iron commitment,” not to take a second job, after Paterson resigned rather than submit to a 30-day suspension from the House of Commons over paid lobbying.

Labour is standing a local candidate, Ben Wood, from Oswestry – but is pouring more resources into next week’s byelection in Old Bexley and Sidcup, the seat made vacant by the death of former minister James Brokenshire.

The pair of byelections will be the first electoral test for Johnson since the Paterson affair, which has undermined his authority with Conservative backbenchers and led to questions about his grip on government.

A significant swing against the Conservatives would raise questions about the party’s ability to hold on to Tory seats with smaller majorities.

After the Chesham and Amersham defeat highlighted concerns among former Tory voters about the government’s proposed radical overhaul of planning rules, the plans were put on pause by the levelling up secretary, Michael Gove.