Political Deadlock? Not In The Margins

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While the national polls have remained remarkably static throughout the campaign - and in the months before - the local picture is much more fluid.

In marginal seats across the country, battles are being fought out with a huge range of different dynamics - in particular the emergence of parties previously confined to the fringe makes outcomes much more uncertain.

I revisited two constituencies that have featured in my "In the Margins" project to see how the situation has developed with less than a week to polling day.

Great Grimsby was the first constituency that I visited in early December. At that time, disaffection with the main Westminster parties was driving people into the arms of Nigel Farage.

I asked locals which party they felt best represented working people. At that time, the bulk said UKIP. But it seems the Westminster establishment has reasserted itself since.

When I asked the same question again this weekend, almost everyone said Labour. It's an impression backed by Lord Ashcroft's most recent polls which shows Ed Miliband's party reclaiming its grip on the seat.

Peterborough is a Tory seat that Labour need to win. Here, I asked people whether they felt Ed Miliband was ready to become Prime Minister.

The response was mixed. Some people were incredulous at the idea, though it was noticeable that voters recognised the Labour leader had upped his game during the campaign.

I also visited Harlow, another Labour/Tory marginal to see what people made of David Cameron's recent injection of "passion" into his speaking style.

Outside Harlow station I played people an excerpt of a speech in which the Prime Minister bellowed "that pumps me up".

To my own surprise (I had thought some people might find the transformation from statesman to streetfighter a touch artificial) most applauded the change.

One woman, a Tory voter, said it was "about time", and he should have done it earlier.

All in all, the picture in marginal constituencies continues to be more fluid and fascinating than the national polls might imply.

And it is clear that some elements of the national campaign are getting through to people and it could make the difference in seats where the margins are tight.