Primary election day – live: Dr Oz breaks with Trump on 2020 election as Barnette surges in polls

Donald Trump’s favoured candidates are facing their GOP rivals today in Pennsylvania and North Carolina while elsewhere races are being held in Kentucky, Oregon and Idaho.

In Pennsylvania, Mr Trump has endorsed Dr Mehmet Oz, the celebrity TV doctor who hopes to capture the GOP’s nomination to succeed retiring Republican Senator Pat Toomey. Dr Oz is facing a stunning late-in-the-day surge by “ultra-Maga” candidate Kathy Barnette – reflecting problems of his own, in particular a lack of enthusiasm among conservatives. He has also notably refused to repeat Mr Trump’s mantra that the 2020 election was stolen, a particularly risky move given that the state where he’s running is one of the ex-president’s fixations.

Meanwhile, the former president’s pick for the open US Senate seat in North Carolina is Ted Budd – whom most pollsters say holds a comfortable lead over Pat McCrory, the state’s former govenor.

Madison Cawthorn, the embattled first-term congressman who has been buried under a heap of scandals in recent months, is also hoping to prevail in the contested primary for North Carolina’s 11th congressional district. He apparently remains in the lead, though polling has been sparse.

Key points

• Dr Oz challenged by surging Kathy Barnette in Pennsylvania

• John Fetterman sidelined by stroke in final hours of primary

• Donald Trump’s power to be tested in two states

Analysis: What to watch in PA and NC tonight

17:00 , Alex Woodward

Voting is underway in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, whose House, Senate and gubernatorial primaries will do a lot to calibrate the direction of the Republican Party headed into this November’s elections.

Eric Garcia has put together a handy guide to the races that matter most, from Madison Cawthorn’s effort to avoid a runoff to fringe Christian nationalist and Trump endorsee Doug Mastriano’s seemingly unstoppable march toward the nomination for governor of Pennsylvania.

Read the full analysis below:

Here are five things to watch in Pennsylvania and North Carolina’s primaries

Pray, walk, laugh: Barnette describes experience of 6 Jan rally

16:28 , Andrew Naughtie

As Kathy Barnette surged to the top of the Pennsylvania Senate primary field, her support for hardcore ideas and her travel to Washington, DC on 6 January 2021 have raised increasing questions about her suitability for office – even among many Republicans.

As CBS News reports, however, Ms Barnette’s recollection of the events at the Capitol as she experienced them is rather more benign...

Democrats duke it out over ideology

15:25 , Andrew Naughtie

While the variously bizarre and acrimonious Republican primaries around the US are getting the lion’s share of the attention today, the Democrats are fighting some serious intraparty battles of their own – many of them on the issue of whether left-wing progressives or centrist moderates stand a better chance of holding key districts in November.

And it seems the intensity of the row is being reflected in fundraising, with money pouring into a mere handful of races where the left and the centre are clashing most bitterly.

Here’s a dive into the story from Politico.

Doug Mastriano staffer was at US Capitol on 6 January 2021

14:55 , Andrew Naughtie

Among the various top-tier candidates in tonight’s primaries, perhaps the most controversial is Pennsylvania State Senator Doug Mastriano, who looks set to be the Republican nominee for governor. A radical right-wing Christian who was openly involved in transporting people to Washington, DC on 6 January 2021, he has taken a hard line against the media during his campaign, with reporters often barred from entering his events.

The task of keeping them out has often fallen to his staff – and it now turns out that one of them was not only present at the US Capitol for the 6 January attack, but was also near the spot where journalists were attacked and their equipment smashed.

Dr Oz invites voters to think of him in bed

14:24 , Andrew Naughtie

In a very strange interview on Fox News yesterday, Dr Mehmet Oz offered Pennsylvania voters some soothing words of reassurance about his dedication to working for them. But in his final rendering, the message got more than a little mangled...

Pennsylvania poll shows Oz tied with Barnette

13:50 , Andrew Naughtie

According to a last-minute survey of Pennsylvania primary voters, it seems that Donald Trump’s endorsee Dr Oz is very much in trouble, with surging far-right candidate Kathy Barnette holding him to an effective tie.

Outlining the results, statewide pollster SP&R writes:

Take a look at the poll below.

Analysis: The GOP senator determined to bury Madison Cawthorn

13:17 , Andrew Naughtie

Ahead of tonight’s primaries in North Carolina, Eric Garcia has taken a look at the mainstream Republican effort to somehow eject Madison Cawthorn from his district – an effort that has been led by incumbed senator Thom Tillis:

Read his full analysis below.

This is the Republican Senator determined to bury Madison Cawthorn

Kathy Barnette defends her Islamophobic Obama comments

12:40 , Andrew Naughtie

One of the many stories swirling around Pennsylvania candidate Kathy Barnette is her history of Islamophobic remarks, including about Barack Obama when he was president. In a recent appearance on Fox News, Ms Barnette was asked to account for a message she posted on 16 January 2016 claiming former president Barack Obama is a “Muslim doing Muslim-like things” – and her answer was not exactly tight.

“I was watching … FBI Director James Comey testify, I believe, in front of the Senate, saying ‘we can vet until the cows come home and we know won’t know who these people are. ,’and yet Obama at the time was telling the American people: ‘Don’t worry about it. We’re going to vet everyone,’ and what we were watching as Americans [was] very unnerving,” she said.

Read more below from Andrew Feinberg.

GOP Senate candidate defends falsely claiming Obama was Muslim

Cawthorn touts “ultra-Maga” views

12:10 , Andrew Naughtie

Madison Cawthorn, the right-wing congressman running for re-election with Donald Trump’s endorsement, has embraced his reputation as a hardcore right-winger – an image only reinforced by various incendiary statements and his decision to carry guns into airports – and on the eve of his primary in North Carolina, he tweeted out his view of the Republican Party’s chances this fall:

Mr Cawthorn’s prediction runs counter to that of many in the party, and even Donald Trump, who said in a recent statement that the hardliner Kathy Barnette could not offer the GOP a guaranteed victory in Pennsylvania if she wins the primary over his chosen candidate, relative moderate Dr Mehmet Oz.

Trump phones in to Oz event in Pennsylvania

11:35 , Andrew Naughtie

Donald Trump is selective with his in-person appearances on the campaign trail these days, restricting himself mainly to rallies in carefully chosen states with candidates he has heartily endorsed. He held such an event for Dr Mehmet Oz not long ago, but since it became clear the TV medic is in danger of losing his primary, Mr Trump has not appeared in Pennsylvania again.

However, an Oz campaign event last night – billed as a “telerally” – saw the president dial in on speakerphone to address a roomful of supporters, reassuring them that the candidate was in fact pro-life and pro-gun. Dr Oz’s long record of relatively liberal positions on both issues is the main strike against him for many conservatives, who have been resistant to his entreaties despite Mr Trump’s backing.

Barnette attacked over Jan 6...by Fox News

10:53 , Andrew Naughtie

Pictures showing Kathy Barnette at the 6 January 2021 march on the US Capitol have met with a furious reception among those already alarmed by her rise – and it’s not just Democrats who are angry.

On his show last night, Fox News’s Sean Hannity ramped up his steady opposition to Ms Barnette with a segment on the “mystery” surrounding her.

Mr Hannity has been a longtime supporter of Dr Oz as well as Donald Trump, a double affiliation that (all complaints about her extremism aside) has turned him against Ms Barnette since she first came onto the radar.

Pro-Israel group pours hundreds of thousands into effort to defeat progressive in Pennsylvania

10:00 , John Bowden

The group that serves as the political arm of AIPAC, the Israel lobby’s largest organisation in the US, has poured more than $1m into a Pennsylvania House race to defeat a progressive, Summer Lee, who looks poised to defeat attorney Steve Irwin in the district’s Democratic primary.

Mr Irwin is a former GOP staffer and AIPAC itself is currently facing pointed criticism from the left for its refusal to explain why it supported Republican candidates who fought to overturn the 2020 election results last year. But the organisation’s money could still turn the tide in Pennsylvania.

Read more from The Intercept:

Kathy Barnette organised buses to DC on Jan 6

09:03 , John Bowden

Upstart Pennsylvania Senate candidate Kathy Barnette's involvement in January 6 was much deeper than previously known.

A CNN KFile investigation published on the eve of Pennsylvania's primary elections revealed that Ms Barnette organised Trump supporters to attend protests in DC on the day of the riot, even boasting that she would bring three buses of "pissed off patriots" to the city in an interview on 5 January 2021.

Read more at CNN:

Can Madison Cawthorn survive Thom Tillis?

08:00 , John Bowden

Freshman Congressman Madison Cawthorn has no shortage of political foes but one of his most dangerous in his home state is Thom Tillis, the state’s junior Republican senator who will become the senior senator in January following the retirement of Richard Burr.

Mr Tillis is pouring his own super PAC’s money behind the effort to oust the Trump-endorsed Mr Cawthorn, who is beset by a myriad of scandals.

Read more from The Independent’s Eric Garcia:

This is the Republican Senator determined to bury Madison Cawthorn

Ted Budd looks poised to coast to victory with Trump’s support

07:01 , John Bowden

North Carolina Congressman Ted Budd is poised to claim victory on Tuesday over the state’s former governor in the race to be the GOP nominee for the seat held by retiring Sen Richard Burr.

His ascendancy is being buoyed by Donald Trump’s endorsement as well as that of the affluent Club for Growth, which has poured millions behind Mr Budd after breaking with the former president and being burned by Josh Mandel’s defeat in Ohio.

Mr Budd’s success despite running against an opponent who started with far greater name recognition is a sign of the clear power that Donald Trump still wields.

Read more in this profile of the race from the Associated Press:

North Carolina Senate race tests Trump's endorsement power

ICYMI: Madison Cawthorn says he’s being treated unfairly

03:45 , John Bowden

Embattled congressman Madison Cawthorn has blamed many of the scandals he faces on opposition from the DC establishment, which he has accused of opposing his efforts to support Donald Trump in Washington.

But many of his more recent negative headlines stem from decisions he made in his personal life that have come back to bite him.

Read more in The Independent:

Madison Cawthorn says someone is out to get him – is he right?

Barnette slams frontrunner Dr Oz for insufficient Trump support on eve of primary

02:45 , John Bowden

Kathy Barnette is focusing her fire on Dr Oz as the final hours of the GOP Senate primary in Pennsylvania tick down.

In a tweet posted on Monday afternoon, Ms Barnette questioned why the Trump-loving Mehmet Oz had not voted in the 2018 midterm elections, when Democrats took control of the House.

Less-watched race in Oregon will be test of Biden’s endorsement

01:45 , John Bowden

A congressman running for his eighth term in the House will face a test on Tuesday to prove whether President Joe Biden’s endorsement is enough to make a difference in his race against Jamie McLeod-Skinner, a progressive who has vowed to support Mr Biden’s agenda if she beats his favoured candidate tomorrow.

Rep Kurt Schrader was the first candidate endorsed by the president in 2022, but sparse polls have indicated that his primary race could be close.

Read more in The Associated Press:

Biden's leadership of Democrats faces test in next primaries

AP analysis: Voters returning to in-person polling stations

Tuesday 17 May 2022 00:45 , John Bowden

The vote-by-mail craze that was sparked by the Covid-19 pandemic is “receding”, according to The Associated Press.

Primary elections in four states including Georgia and Ohio, which recently held elections, have all shown a massive trend towards in-person voting as the US’s handling of the pandemic has shifted dramatically towards favouring a return to normal life, even as the US has just passed 1 million dead from the virus.

Read more in the AP:

Monday 16 May 2022 23:45 , John Bowden

Kathy Barnette’s campaign for the open US Senate seat in Pennsylvania is facing another roadbloack: News that the candidate herself was in Washington DC to support the protests on January 6 that eventually led to a siege of the US Capitol.

She does not have Donald Trump’s endorsement in the Pennsylvania Senate race but the far-right darling is surging behind frontrunner Dr Mehmet Oz in recent polling and is now within striking distance of winning the primary. Her campaign confirmed that she was in Washington DC on January 6, where she was seen marching alongside members of the far-right Proud Boys group, but denied that she had committed any illegal acts.

“Kathy was in DC to support President Trump and demand election accountability. Any assertion that she participated in or supported the destruction of property is intentionally false. She has no connection whatsoever to the proud boys,” her campaign said.

Read more from The Independent’s Eric Garcia:

Pennsylvania Senate candidate spotted marching with Proud Boys on 6 January

New poll shows Dr Oz could be in trouble

Monday 16 May 2022 22:45 , John Bowden

A new poll from Emerson College measuring favorability ratings of GOP candidates in the state’s US Senate primary is out, and it spells bad news for Dr Mehmet Oz, the current presumed-frontrunner who now is clinging on to a lead in some polling by only a few points.

In the poll, Dr Oz was the only candidate in the race underwater with voters in terms of his overall popularity, regardless of whether they actually plan to vote for him on Tuesday. That spells trouble not just for the primary but also for November, when the GOP nominee will face a Democrat, likely the state’s Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman, for the Senate seat in a state Joe Biden won over Donald Trump in 2020.

ICYMI: Stroke disrupts John Fetterman’s Senate bid

Monday 16 May 2022 21:45 , John Bowden

The frontrunner in Pennsylvania’s Democratic Senate primary is John Fetterman, the bigger-than-life lieutenant governor who holds a commanding lead over two other opponents in the race.

Over the weekend he announced that he had suffered a mild stroke and was hospitalised, but remained determined to return to the campaign trail shortly.

“[O]ur campaign isn’t slowing down one bit, and we are still on track to win this primary on Tuesday, and flip this Senate seat in November. Thanks for all the support, and please get out there and vote,” Mr Fetterman declared on Sunday.

Read more in The Independent:

John Fetterman hospitalised with stroke

Will Kathy Barnette surge to victory in Pennsylvania?

Monday 16 May 2022 21:18 , John Bowden

The biggest name in Pennsylvania’s Senate primary on the Republican side over the weekend was not Dr Oz, nor was it his top rival David McCormick, who many expected to win Donald Trump’s endorsement.

Instead it was Kathy Barnette, an underdog in the race who has surged to striking distance of winning the primary in recent days and now sits in second place behind Mehmet Oz, the Trump-endorsed celebrity TV doctor and frontrunner, according to a RealClearPolitics average of polls that puts Dr Oz at 26 per cent at Ms Barnette at 23.4 per cent.

The victory by Ms Barnette in the primary would be a shocking come-from-behind win by a far-right wing candidate who has espoused falsehoods about Barack Obama and his religious beliefs and who was in Washington DC on the day the Capitol was stormed by Trump supporters.

Read more about her past comments in The Independent from Andrew Feinberg:

GOP Senate candidate defends falsely claiming Obama was Muslim

Trump issues last-minute plea for Madison Cawthorn

Monday 16 May 2022 20:39 , John Bowden

Madison Cawthorn is trying to hold on to his House seat, which he has held for one term, in North Carolina’s newly-redrawn 11th congressional district.

The embattled congressman faces the wrath of his party leadership and one member of his state’s congressional delegation, GOP Senator Thom Tillis, is openly backing his top challenger Chuck Edwards.

Mr Cawthorn’s campaign has largely abstained from in-person events amid the ever-growing list of scandals, which expanded last month to include his comments about fellow House members accusing them of doing cocaine and inviting him to orgies.

But he does have one major advantage over Mr Edwards: The support of Donald Trump, who on Monday implored voters to “give Madison a second chance” ahead of Tuesday’s primary.

Read more in The Independent:

Trump pleads for voters to give Madison Cawthorn a ‘second chance’ in primary Tuesday

Good afternoon

Monday 16 May 2022 20:32 , John Bowden

Voters are heading to the polls on Tuesday in Kentucky, Oregon, Idaho, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

Donald Trump’s power within the Republican Party will be tested once again, while Democratic voters will decide who they think is best to stand against the president’s chosen nominees in November.

Follow along for more updates.