Provincial election losses may help Justin Trudeau's green agenda

For months, Canada’s prime minister Justin Trudeau has been dogged by an ever-deepening political scandal that has dragged down his popularity and threatened his re-election prospects. In yet another blow, Trudeau last week lost one of his most important allies in the country’s fight against climate change in a bitterly contested regional election in Alberta.

But for the embattled Liberal prime minister the loss might be an electoral blessing, allowing him to shift messaging in anticipation of the October federal election, deploying fresh lines of attack against an opposition with little apparent interest in tackling environmental issues.

With the election of Jason Kenney of the United Conservative party in the province of Alberta last week, there is now a phalanx of rightwing premiers (the Canadian term for a provincial leader) across the country who have little interest in cooperating with the prime minister. A number of provinces have even gone as far as fighting the federal government’s mandatory carbon tax in the courts.

The exit of Rachel Notley of the social-democratic New Democratic party as premier in Alberta on Tuesday evening is by no means the first dent in the prime minister’s plan.

When populist premier Doug Ford took the reins of Ontario last summer, he worked quickly to dismantle the province’s environmental policies, withdrawing from numerous agreements.

Nonetheless, a loss in western Canada inevitably stings: Trudeau and his team modelled their national climate strategy on Alberta’s progressive climate policies. If premier-designate Kenney follows through on his plans to repeal the province’s carbon tax – a key promise of his campaign – the move will likely trigger a showdown with the federal government.

“At that point, the expectation would be, and certainly based on what the Trudeau government has done in four other provinces, that the federal government would step in and establish a carbon tax in Alberta at a level of $30 (£17) per tonne,” said Kathryn Harrison, a professor of political science at the University of British Columbia.

But a public fight might also benefit Trudeau, allowing him to more clearly define his vision of a national climate change plan. With Kenney looking to extend the life of the province’s coal plants and scale back emissions caps on the oil sands, and Ford ordering controversial stickers criticising the carbon tax on all petrol pumps in Ontario, Trudeau is in a position to sell voters on a message that his opponents are focused on rolling back environmental protections.

“These conservative premiers, especially Ford and Kenney, will serve as foils for Trudeau,” said Nelson Wiseman, a professor of political science at the University of Toronto, of the two most vocal conservative premiers, neither of whom have high favourability ratings. “Whenever he talks about [Conservative leader of the opposition Andrew] Scheer, most of the time he’ll also invoke their names.”

A recent government report, which found that Canada is warming at a rate double that of the global average, has resonated deeply across the country. But the timing of its release – the same day the federal carbon tax went into effect – has many suspecting a political calculation by the Trudeau government and an indication that he believes climate change will be a motivating factor for voters.

In recent weeks, under the cloud of scandal, Trudeau has repeatedly castigated the Conservatives for not having a plan to address climate change: it has been a year since Scheer promised a comprehensive climate plan, only to continually delay any rollout.

“Climate change is real and must be fought,” Trudeau told attendees at a town hall event, as he faced pointed questions about his government’s actions on the environment.

“The only way to ensure good jobs in the future is to make sure we are fighting climate change, that we are protecting the environment,” he said, pointing to the absence of any clear policy from his main opponent.

But Wiseman cautions against giving too much weight to climate change as a deciding factor in voting.

“My experience is that in an election, issues are generally secondary,” said Wiseman. “More of it will revolve around the images of the leaders and the stewardship of the incumbent.”

Trudeau, whose own image has been marred by allegations of political meddling in a bribery case, is also likely to remind voters it was Kenney, as minister of citizenship under former Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper, who first ushered in the country’s controversial niqab ban in 2015, only to have it repudiated by the public and quashed by the courts.

Wiseman also pointed to a number of “stunts” by conservative politicians in recent weeks, including Ford and Kenney posting photos of themselves filling up their vehicles before the carbon tax came into effect. “It doesn’t make them look good,” he said. “That isn’t going to be a gain for them.”