The real test is if this deal will pass through the Commons

Hold the champagne! The UK and EU27 officials have agreed a text — but now comes the hard part. What will the politicians across Europe and in the UK, both in Government and in the House of Commons do?

Politicians know that down the proverbial Dog and Duck the public are worn out by Brexit and want it all over. Yet they also know that the public do not want Brexit at any price and that many of their constituents will be unhappy, whatever the deal is.

Last night, in a scene reminiscent of 1990, when Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher resigned, Cabinet ministers were called in to meet Theresa May individually. The meetings will probably have been short and to the point and will have gone something like this: “Here it is. You have overnight to declare your support.”

This afternoon the Cabinet will meet to ratify the Prime Minister’s endeavours — with or without some ministers. I suspect few, if any, will resign, as they know that their influence and future prospects will decline if they are not sitting at the table.

The real test is whether this deal will pass through the House of Commons. Many MPs will be preparing to analyse it based on whether it is in the national interest, the interest of their constituents and ultimately whether they can vote for it in good conscience. If the deal can be argued to protect the country’s economic interests, then it will attract support on the Conservative back benches. My hope is that after careful analysis I can support the PM’s deal.

But not all Conservatives are on board. The Brexiteers in the European Research Group will make a calculation based on two factors. They are likely to support the deal if they think that after March 29 it allows them to steer towards a “hard” Brexit after the transition period. They are likely to vote against the deal if it aligns the UK too closely to the EU and in their view prevents the dream of economic freedom. And a number of colleagues will also prefer a People’s Vote over this deal.

However, this is a minority Government and even if every Tory were to support the Prime Minister, which is unlikely, the reaction of the Opposition parties is vital. Undoubtedly the deal will fail the Labour Party’s flawed tests — any deal secured by any Prime Minister would. So the key to success lies with the DUP and therefore the fine text of what exactly has been agreed for Northern Ireland will be key.

All these factors and factions are febrile. The deal cannot be certain to attract a majority in the Commons. If this is the case, “no deal” must not be the default position. As I have written before on these pages the consequences of no deal will be calamitous for our country. I still believe that EEA/EFTA offers a sensible plan B. Hold the champagne, Brexit isn’t over yet.

• Stephen Hammond is the Conservative MP for Wimbledon