SNP Growth Commission even less realistic than Alex Salmond's independence White Paper, says think tank

The SNP's revised economic case for independence is even less realistic than Alex Salmond's 2014 blueprint and inadvertently makes the case for the Union, according to a detailed new analysis.

These Islands, a pro-UK think tank, dismissed the Nationalists' claims that their Sustainable Growth Commission report was a more "rigorous plan" than the Scottish Government White Paper published before the last referendum.

The analysis said the commission's economic growth figures in a separate Scotland were far more "optimistic" than those included in the White Paper, but the calculations behind them were "fundamentally flawed".

These Islands said the commission tried to justify its conclusions by cherry-picking the figures recorded by better-performing small countries then setting a target to outperform their growth by one per cent annually for 15 years.

But the analysis said the target is "highly speculative and frankly unjustifiable" and takes no account of the economic damage caused by leaving the UK - "an extraordinary and indefendible oversight."

In addition, it said the commission assumes that far larger savings can be made than the White Paper did, cuts Scotland's contribution to the UK's national debt and avoids discussing EU membership.

Although the new blueprint assumes no North Sea oil revenues, compared to the White Paper's hugely inflated assumptions, neither did it consider North Sea decommissioning liabilities of up to £80 billion.

The commission's report rejected austerity but These Islands said its recommendations for cutting Scotland's deficit would have meant public spending being between £58 billion and £66 billion lower over the last decade.

The SNP's plans would "be likely to lead to austerity far greater than anything Scotland has recently experienced (or is forecast to experience in the UK)," the analysis said.

It said Scotland's deficit is currently plugged by funding from the rest of the UK, via the Barnett formula, before criticising the commission's plan to unofficially keep the pound without a central bank in the first decade.

The analysis said this would prevent Scotland joining the EU, which would likely insist on an independent currency, and the impact on Scotland's financial services industry could be "devastating".

The commission argued a separate Scotland could adopt its own currency in the longer term, but the analysis pointed out it made no attempt to quantify the reserves required, estimated by experts at between £30 billion and £300 billion.

These Islands said the commission had made "well-argued" cases for the economic value of immigration and the potential for stronger export growth but many of these ideas could be adopted without independence.

The blueprint was published in May by Andrew Wilson, a former SNP MSP and the commission's chairman, after being ordered by Nicola Sturgeon.

Kevin Hague, the think tank's chairman, said: "Our paper shows that the SNP’s Growth Commission report is objectively more optimistic than the 2014 White Paper, not more realistic as has been widely claimed. 

"In fact the Growth Commission’s report contains highly misleading analysis, fails to address the key economic questions and – we presume unintentionally – actually strengthens the economic case for Scotland remaining in the UK.”

These Islands concluded that the commission's economic growth strategy "amounts to a laundry list of possible ideas" that does not attempt to model their impact.

The SNP claimed the Growth Commission's plan would lead to additional spending, despite the impartial Institute for Fiscal Studies having previously confirmed it would mean austerity.

A spokesman said: "The commission has kick-started a serious and welcome debate over Scotland's future, and unionists are clearly rattled by the boost it has given to the independence case, with last month’s Scottish Social Attitudes survey showing that the numbers who view independence as positive for Scotland’s economy now outnumber those who believe otherwise."