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SNP minister predicts second independence vote as soon as April 2019

Keith Brown, the SNP's Economy Minister - PA
Keith Brown, the SNP's Economy Minister - PA

A second independence referendum could be held as early as April next year, Scotland’s Economy Minister has predicted as it emerged the SNP government has scrapped plans to publish North Sea oil forecasts.

Keith Brown, who is the clear frontrunner in the contest to become the SNP’s deputy leader, said a rerun of the 2014 vote could be held in 12 months or two years.

He said the First Minister would name the precise date after assessing the damage caused by Brexit and his task, if he becomes depute leader, would be to ensure the party was ready.

His intervention came as it emerged the Scottish Government has no plans to publish any more bulletins on the health of the North Sea oil and gas industry.

They were a key part of the SNP’s case for independence in the run-up to the 2014 referendum, with Nicola Sturgeon predicting a second “oil boom”, but ministers have published only one bulletin since the oil price collapsed.

Ms Sturgeon is instead expected to shortly unveil the findings of the party’s growth commission, which aims to overhaul the economic case for separation and address the thorny issue of which currency an independent Scotland should adopt.

Mr Brown predicted an early rerun in an election leaflet posted on social media ahead of a hustings this weekend with the other deputy leadership candidates.

He said: “The next independence referendum could be held in 12 months or two years. As the First Minister has said, the time to make the decision will be later this year when the timing and shape of the Brexit deal and the extent of the damage it will do to Scotland becomes clearer. That is something no-one can predict at this stage.”

If he wins, the minister said he would ensure the party used the period before the next vote to “hone the case for independence and heighten our organisational and campaigning capacity to get us fighting fit to win.”

James Kelly, a Labour MSP, said: “Keith Brown might have to appeal to the fundamentalist wing of the SNP to win this depute leader election, but most people in Scotland would prefer it if the Economy Secretary focused on his day job.”

Willie Rennie, the Scottish Liberal Democrat leader, said the candidates should be repeating their pledges from 2014 that an independence referendum would be held “once in a generation” or “once in a lifetime.”

“Or better still just say ‘no, it’s time for our country to move on from the division of independence’,” he told his party conference in Aviemore.

The Scottish Government has stopped publishing its oil and gas analysis bulletins - Credit: PA
The Scottish Government has stopped publishing its oil and gas analysis bulletins Credit: PA

Meanwhile, the Office for Statistics Regulation confirmed that the Scottish Government has no plans to publish another Oil and Gas Analytical Bulletin.

In a letter to Labour, Ed Humpherson, its director general for regulation, said the SNP administration has developed new statistics since the last bulletin in 2015 and the requirement for a new one will be kept “under review.”

Lewis Macdonald, a North East Labour MSP, said: "Since the oil price collapse, we have only had one bulletin - as long ago as 2015. That is simply a disgrace.

"With thousands of jobs lost and the industry still in recovery, we need as much information as possible on the state of the North Sea. Instead, Nationalist ministers have decided to bury their heads in the sand in an attempt to avoid a political humiliation."

But a spokesman for Paul Wheelhouse, the SNP’s Energy Minister, said: "This is a ridiculous attack from Labour, who as ever just want to talk down Scotland's oil and gas industry in a bid to score cheap political points.”