Social media and the future of elections

Experts share what role social media platforms will play on voting patterns in 2017 and beyond.

Social media websites were around long before last year's EU referendum and US presidential election, but tools such as Facebook and Twitter rose to a new level of prominence during the Leave v Remain and Clinton v Trump contests.

Hashtags rose and fell, millions of dollars and pounds were spent,
and the pitched battles across social networks were more belligerent than ever.

According to the Pew Research Centre, 62pc of US adults get at least some of their news from social media, but that's curated by our friends and contacts who, most of the time, will have the same political persuasion.

As outgoing US President, Barack Obama, pointed out, this puts us in our own bubble, hearing what we want to hear and increasingly at odds with anyone who doesn't share this space.

The question now is: how will social media tools be used by politicians and voters in elections to come?

Rise in video and one-to-one campaigning

Each year, average broadband and mobile connection speeds rise, making our smartphones even more capable. This is helpful for one messaging medium in particular – video.

"You can expect to see increasing use of video, especially mobile video and live streaming," says Uday Radia, director of PR company, CloudNine PR. According to Mr Radia, there's another fledgling technology trend that will spread into politics and elections: chatbots.

"Big marketing brands are starting to use mobile messaging apps, such as Facebook Messenger and WhatsApp, to generate one-to-one interactions with people, often underpinned by artificial intelligence bots," he says.

It's a social media trend that many have already noticed, with users gravitating towards Instagram, Snapchat and others for small-group or one-to-one conversations, rather than the more public platforms offered by Facebook and Twitter.

The growth of data analysis

With few secrets from the technology companies that make the products we use, data tracking and analysis are set to play a growing role in future elections.

A new era of in-depth data analysis began with Rick Perry's 2006 Texas gubernatorial campaign and came into prominence with Obama for America in 2008, says Meta Brown, president of the A4A Brown consultancy and author of Data Mining for Dummies.

"Analytics provide information about potential supporters: where to find them, what's on their minds, what campaign messages they like or don’t like, and whether and how much they will donate.”

As more data is collected from our habits on and offline, it will play an increasingly important role in how political parties campaign and reach voters. "Analytics will impact the way campaigns use every channel, from handshaking to social media and television," adds Ms Brown.

Minorities rule

One of social media’s most noticeable impacts has been to provide a platform to those who previously didn't have one.

Whether it's protesting about the political status quo during the Arab Spring, drawing attention to causes such as #BlackLivesMatter, or tweeting at celebrities such as Wayne Rooney, social media has opened up the floor to people who wouldn't otherwise get a say.

"The sense of belonging to a much larger group, which can be generated in new social media contexts, may make the articulation of what has traditionally been seen as more extreme minority views
feel more mainstream," explains professor Laura Cram from the University of Edinburgh's NRlabs Neuropolitics Research.

“This may embolden those who may have traditionally lacked a mainstream outlet or sense that they belong to a wider community,” she says.

In other words, a strong Twitter following can be as good as a spot on TV’s Question Time – only easier to get.