Syria talks resume in Geneva with rivals still deadlocked over Assad's future

When the UN’s special envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, reconvenes the Syrian peace talks in the Palais Des Nations in Geneva on Thursday, he will be facing a totally recast political landscape since he brought the warring sides together in the same city last year.

Back in February 2016 there was a degree of quiet optimism in western diplomatic circles that Russia felt it had secured its chief strategic goal. By intervening militarily in September 2015 to save President Bashar al-Assad, Vladimir Putin had made himself indisputably the key player in Syria and, as a result, might be ready to deliver a conciliatory Syrian government delegation to the talks.

Instead, confronted by a collapsing ceasefire and an implacable Syrian delegation unwilling to discuss any transition away from Assad, De Mistura had to abandon the talks after two fruitless sessions. A bland summary of the points of agreement between the two sides, produced by De Mistura, underscored how little progress the elegant diplomat had made.

Since then, little has happened on the ground, or among the circling constellation of national actors, to suggest the Syrian government delegation, led by the austere Bashar Jaafari, has reached Geneva believing it needs to be any more flexible than it was in 2016.

Eastern Aleppo has fallen from opposition control, and many of the rebel groups have subsequently collapsed into internal blood-letting mergers, splits and kidnappings. When Assad now talks of regaining every inch of Syrian territory from the terrorists, he no longer sounds totally deluded, even if he is heavily dependent on Iranian-backed militia to achieve this.

Turkey – once the chief sponsor of the Syrian opposition and now with its troops fighting Islamic State in the north – has re-calibrated its foreign policy in the aftermath of July’s attempted coup, gradually shifting towards co-operation with Russia in Syria. Ankara’s prime concern appears to be preventing the Kurds from expanding their footprint in northern Syria, so strengthening Kurdish forces inside Turkey.

At the same time, the influx of Syrian refugees has continued unabated. The latest reports suggest there are more than 3.5 million Syrians inside Turkey, an increase of 500,000 in eight months.

In the west there is a vacuum. Donald Trump’s election in the US has confirmed the suspension of military support for the Syrian opposition that was pursued by his predecessor, Barack Obama, but little else is known.

“One thing I’m missing at the moment ... is a clear US strategy,” De Mistura told the Munich security conference at the weekend. “Where are the United States [on a political solution]? I can’t tell you, because I don’t know.” He is not alone. The Syria question cannot be solved in a tweet. A policy may take weeks to emerge.

In his only intervention, Trump has spoken of the need for safe zones funded by the Gulf States, explaining brutally “they have nothing but money”. The Sunni Gulf States say little but cling to the belief that Trump will prove to be a true enemy of Iran.

For the moment the diplomatic initiative has been handed to Iran, Turkey and Russia, who have held two meetings in Astana, Kazakhstan. Indeed De Mistura has only just managed, with Turkish help, to prevent Russia taking over the peace talks from the UN.

At the same time the military balance within the Syrian opposition has changed. Jihadist forces organised in a new coalition, the Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant (HTS), have become more powerful, attracting factions from its main rival, Ahrar al-Sham. The Free Syrian Army is still operating, but on the back foot.

“The opposition should understand that there are new realities on the ground in Syria and international changes. It is not like it was in 2011,” pro-Assad Syrian parliamentarian Sharif Shehadeh said on Wednesday. “The circumstances, the [battlefield] has changed, the political situation has changed, so they need to go with a mindset of participation, not exclusion.”

The temptation for Trump and for Russia is to let military events play out on the ground, culminating in the total defeat of the opposition by Assad, who would stay in power. Trump’s allies in Europe, such as Marine le Pen, the leader of France’s Front National, have backed keeping Assad in charge. Attention would then be solely focussed on dislodging Isis from Raqqa, for which the US is already thinking of despatching more special forces.

But De Mistura and many western diplomats still argue there can be no permanent peace in Syria without political agreement over its systems of governance, and free elections.

There is also the issue of Assad’s moral culpability. A series of reports published in the last fortnight on the murder of political detainees in his prisons, the methods used to raze Aleppo and the use of chemical weapons make Assad’s indefinite retention of power hard to contemplate. It would also leave Iran entrenched in Syria, something Israel and Trump would abhor.

Equally, the billions the EU has prepared to help reconstruct the country may not be released if there is no political agreement.

De Mistura, knowing he has has little with which to cajole Assad to the negotiating table, discreetly dropped references to a political transition being discussed at Geneva.

At the weekend Munich security conference De Mistura said he remained focused on UN security council resolution 2254, which focuses on governance, a new constitution and elections. His spokesman has since insisted transition is still on the agenda.

Behind the scenes, the EU has put pressure on the high negotiations council – which represent a network of rebel fighters and Assad’s political opponents – to acknowledge they are closer to military and political defeat, and must compromise. However, in public at least the opposition has shown little willingness to retreat from the position that Assad must go.

“We are fully committed to the Geneva talks and prepared to discuss a political solution and transition, Anas al-Abdah, head of the opposition Syrian National Coalition, said. “[But] we cannot address the profound security threats … while Assad remains in power.”

In London, as it seeks to shape the discussions in Washington, there is a hope that a wedge can be driven between Russia and Iran, and that Moscow will demand Damascus show greater flexibility. But there is little sign of such a grand bargain being struck by Russia and America.

The UN secretary general, António Guterres, summed up the impasse at the weekend when he said neither side yet feels it has more to gain from peace than war.