Tax Credits On Mind Of Political Chancellor

There is often a disconnect between the official party conference agenda, and what is being gossiped about and unpicked in the bars and coffee shops.

George Osborne's speech is no different.

Tax credits may not be spoken about on the conference floor, but in private MPs can't stop talking about them.

The argument is logical. What's the point in taxing people on low incomes in order to regurgitate the money back to them through the welfare system?

Conservative ministers make a compelling case that the low paid are better off overall when you take into account a higher minimum wage, increased childcare funding and lower fuel duty.

And yet, and yet.

MPs in marginal seats are getting twitchy.

"They just don't get it," one told me about his colleagues in safe Tory seats.

"This is going to be a major issue for my constituents. It's going to hurt them."

Another MP in a battleground constituency said: "You can't take candy from a baby. We weren't open to people before the election about where the welfare cuts would come from. It's going to come as a shock to those affected."

The Sun - not known for being a bleeding-heart leftie newspaper to say the least - is campaigning against the tax credit cut (many of the paper's readers are likely to be impacted.)

Mr Osborne is an incredibly political Chancellor with an eye on succeeding David Cameron as Conservative Party leader.

He may not overtly talk about tax credits in his conference speech, but make no mistake, it will be occupying his mind.