Theresa May cuts a lonely figure as crucial Brexit vote looms

There is not much uniting the Conservatives at present, but on one issue everybody is agreed. Theresa May has to try something to avoid risking a humiliating defeat in Tuesday night’s Brexit vote. What is surprising senior insiders is that so far, the prime minister has hardly acted.

Cabinet ministers summoned to see May last Thursday could not believe how little the prime minister had to say for herself, although she let the conversation run and frustrations be aired. Meanwhile, an amendment on giving MPs a vote if the UK wanted to enter the backstop early failed because hostile Tories want the backstop removed entirely.

An idea that May could dash to Brussels early next week to provoke a confrontation with the European Union was being downplayed by No 10 on Sunday morning because it was not obvious what it would achieve.

Amid complaints that Downing Street has stalled, a dangerous vacuum has opened up. Some of this has been filled with chatter about cabinet ministers trying to force a plan B on the prime minister after the Commons vote has been lost.

One idea, a “Norway for now” EEA option that has interested some cabinet remainers, has been rejected by Tory Brexiters, second referendum campaigners and the Labour frontbench, making it hard to see how the idea could go any further – even if May were to fall.

In any event, the prime minister has made it clear she would not accept any deal that compromised on free movement from the European Union, which is what EEA membership would entail.

Brexiters long linked with the leadership such as Boris Johnson say they want May to ditch the backstop and withhold some of the £39bn divorce bill, but they know the legally binding withdrawal agreement has been signed off with the EU. So they are making demands that the prime minister almost certainly cannot meet, with their own leadership aspirations in mind.

Second referendum campaigners have been hoping such uncertainty could work to their advantage because there is no agreement on what happens next. But May herself has no interest in the idea, and her advisers have repeatedly and emphatically ruled out a second poll.

The one idea that keeps circulating is that May should try to pull the vote on Tuesday, although to do so would be an admission of defeat. It would give May time to plead her case at the European summit on Thursday and Friday, but it is not at all clear she would gain any concessions.

Downing Street has long argued that its best chance is to concentrate the minds of Conservative MPs and remind them of the risks of no deal – and of the dangers of reopening talks when the French may press over future access to UK fishing waters and the Spanish may make further claims over Gibraltar.

But with May not making much headway it is hard to see how she can navigate herself out of the current situation: no wonder Johnson, Esther McVey and Dominic Raab are publicly positioning themselves, signalling their interest in television studios, while others get ready behind the scenes.

All this may well suggest that a no-deal Brexit is increasingly likely because neither May’s deal nor any alternative is obviously achievable. What is certain, however, is that there will be an intense period of manoeuvring between now and Tuesday in the run-up to the cliff-edge vote.