Theresa May 'desperate for good news' at EU Council summit after Commons blow

Theresa May will be back on Belgian soil again today and in a city which has become a little too familiar to her over the course of the last two weeks.

A week last Monday she came and departed with her tail between her legs after the DUP threw a spanner in the works of the elusive announcement of a breakthrough in the Brexit negotiations.

Days of intense talks followed culminating in the PM pulling an all-nighter on Thursday and a pre-dawn dash back to the heart of the European quarter when Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker finally got to utter the magic words "sufficient progress had been made" on the three core issues in the first phase of negotiations: Citizens' rights, the Irish border and cash.

But it is not over yet and it will be the words of "the 27" attending the European Council Summit (along with Theresa May who is still the 28th) that matter.

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Twenty seven leaders of nations intending to stay firmly put in the union which the UK will vacate - as chief negotiator Michel Barnier reminded us this week - at 23:00 UK time on 29 March 2019.

Mr Barnier and Mr Juncker may think that sufficient strides have been made but it is not over until the 27 members (Mrs May doesn't have a say) of the European Council sing.

On the face of it, things are looking optimistic. A senior EU source told journalists this week that the Council President Donald Tusk expects an endorsement of sufficient progress with the 27 adopting guidelines, which have been drawn up for the second phase on transition and the future relationship.

But that same EU source said it is up the 27 to decide if they like the look of the guidelines.

Which is where a certain Mr Davis could have thrown a spanner in the works.

The Brexit Secretary certainly put the backs of many in the European Parliament up with his utterance that commitments given in the joint UK/EU deal leading to progress being announced were merely a statement of intent but not legally binding.

Claiming he had destroyed trust, MEPs demanded legal assurances were made (as they passed a resolution supporting moving to the next phase).

There were fears in the light of David Davis' remarks the guidelines to be considered at the council summit could be re-worked, toughened, even that some leaders would want to reject them moving forward.

But no, we have been told by unnamed officials there was no need for substantive changes. The deal was a "gentleman's agreement" and the assumption is - we assume - the EU believes a UK gentlemen (or lady) keeps their word.

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So, full steam ahead (although British officials admit they are taking nothing for granted). Shame then Theresa May won't be around to celebrate her achievement.

She is in for the first day of the summit and then out before her political peers even sit down to decide on rubber stamping the conclusion Mr Barnier and Mr Juncker made. That will happen on Friday.

Which serves as a reminder that IT'S NOT ALL ABOUT BREXIT! There are big issues for the EU to ponder. A reminder too that the UK is still part of the union.

Theresa May will be there for talks and a possible celebration on EU security co-operation (acronym PESCO), for debate on policy and migration and she will sit down to dinner where issues including Donald Trump's recognition of Jerusalem will be on the menu.

There may even be a joint statement with regard to Jerusalem, which the UK will very much be signed up to.

It is a fact, there will be much in terms of political philosophy, in terms of co-operation that will continue to bind one nation in Europe - the UK - to others in the European Union after Brexit.

But it is the going forward with Brexit which will be weighing on Theresa May's mind at this summit. She is desperate to hear some good news - especially after her Commons defeat on the Brexit bill last night.

The signing off on sufficient progress by Emmanuel Macron, Angela Merkel et al will allow movement to the next phase and she is desperate to hear it has happened.

What she will not hear is that the next phase will lead to a trade deal which can be signed, sealed and delivered a day after Brexit - another little nugget Mr Davis threw out.