Theresa May to reveal new Brexit deal

Theresa May is to set out the details of her “new deal” on Brexit in a speech at 4pm as she paves the way for a last-ditch attempt to take Britain out of the EU before she leaves Downing Street.

The prime minister’s spokesman said cabinet had discussed, “alternative arrangements, workers’ rights, environmental protections, and further assurances on protecting the integrity of the UK in the unlikely event that the backstop is required”.

Related: Brexit: May to give speech at 4pm with details of 'new' deal for MPs - live news

However, much of the focus will be on whether the government has moved far enough on customs arrangements and the prospect of a second Brexit referendum to win over Labour MPs.

May told her cabinet colleagues on Tuesday: “The withdrawal agreement bill [Wab] is the vehicle which gets the UK out of the EU and it is vital to find a way to get it over the line.”

The discussion lasted more than two hours, against the backdrop of clashing comments from the chancellor, Philip Hammond, and the leader of the House of Commons, Andrea Leadsom, about the prospect of a no-deal Brexit.

Asked about Hammond’s speech, in which he is expected to say that a no-deal Brexit would be a betrayal, May’s spokesman said that option remained a “plausible” outcome and preparations for it would continue.

Leadsom suggested earlier on Tuesday she would be unwilling to sign off significant concessions on a customs union. “I have been very clear for years: leaving the EU means leaving the single market, leaving the customs union, taking back control of our money, border and laws.”

Asked whether there had been disagreement during the lengthy discussion, the spokesman said: “Brexit is an issue which evokes strong opinions. These are very often reflected around the cabinet table.”

The cabinet also discussed the plans for Donald Trump’s forthcoming visit. The president is due to take part in D-day commemorations, which fall in the same week of early June when May has promised to offer MPs another vote on Brexit.

MPs have already rejected May’s deal three times, but Downing Street is determined to frame the second reading of the Wab as a vote on a “new deal”. It has been drawn up after six weeks of cross-party talks with Jeremy Corbyn, which failed to result in a deal that Labour could whip its MPs to support.

Many of the elements that emerged from those talks, and from the government’s previous efforts to tempt both Labour and Brexit-supporting Tories to support the deal, are likely to be incorporated into the legislation.

Tabling it is likely to be one of May’s final acts as prime minister. If she wins the vote, she is likely to remain in office to see the legislation through all its parliamentary stages – something Downing Street hopes can be completed before MPs’ summer recess.

But if the bill falls, May has promised to meet the executive of the 1922 Committee of backbench Tory MPs, and would then be expected to set out a timetable for her departure. A crowded field of potential successors, including several in the cabinet, have already set out their positions on a range of issues in preparation for a summer campaign.

Michael Gove

The fortunes of the environment secretary remain hard to predict and opinion is split in the party. His detractors believe he is deeply unpopular with the country and has ruined his reputation for good when he stood against Johnson at the last leadership race. Most MPs were delighted by his performance in the no-confidence vote where he tore into Corbyn. But robust Brexiters dislike the fact he has stayed loyal even in the final days of the crumbling May regime.

Matt Hancock

While the response of many voters to mention of the health secretary is still likely to be ‘Who?’, to some he is starting to have the makings of a from-the-sidelines contender. The former culture secretary is only 40 but has six years of frontbench experience, and is on to his second cabinet post. The longer the race goes on the more he gains ground for the seemingly basic virtues of being apparently competent and broadly similar to a normal human being.

Jeremy Hunt

The nickname ‘Theresa in trousers’ has stuck. Most colleagues speak about his candidacy unenthusiastically and warn about his reputation with the country after having weathered the junior doctors’ strike. He could still succeed by bridging the Brexit-remain divide and attracting colleagues looking for a moderate grown-up, but  recently he seemed unable to outline why his brand of Conservatism might appeal to voters.

Sajid Javid

The home secretary is reported to have told Tory MPs he is the only one who can beat Jeremy Corbyn in a general election, but has made less of an impact than first predicted. Several MPs believe that the case of Isis bride Shamima Begum was mishandled and find Javid’s speeches and vision less than inspiring.

Boris Johnson

Still favourite for the top job, Johnson has kept himself out of the messiest Tory warfare in 2019 and has enthusiastic support from younger Brexiter MPs – and the patronage of Jacob Rees-Mogg. His supporters insist no other name on the list can connect with voters in the same way and win a general election. However, his reputation is still severely damaged from his time as foreign secretary and there is a concerted ‘anyone but Boris’ campaign among party colleagues.

Andrea Leadsom

Leadsom has revived her reputation somewhat during her tenure as Commons leader, especially her rounds in the ring with the Speaker, John Bercow. However, few believe she would ever be first choice again among Eurosceptics and a number of her former campaign team have said they will discourage her from running.

Esther McVey

Former cabinet minister McVey has already announced her intention to run. She has the Brexit credentials, having quit as Work and Pensions Secretary in protest at Theresa May's withdrawal agreement, and claims to already have enough support from fellow MPs to make her bid viable.

Penny Mordaunt

Previously seen as a definite outsider, her promotion from international development secretary to defence after the sacking of Gavin Williamson has significantly bolstered her position. As both a confirmed Brexiter and a social liberal she could unite different camps, but she remains relatively untested.

Dominic Raab

The former Brexit secretary has a loyal fanbase and a professional team, including support from Vote Leave’s ex-comms director Paul Stephenson. MPs are forming the view that the next party leader should be a younger face from a new generation of politicians – which gives Raab the edge over Boris Johnson.

Amber Rudd

While she has not officially ruled herself out, Rudd’s remainer tendencies and slender majority in her Hastings constituency mean the work and pensions secretary is largely being courted for who she might eventually endorse.

Liz Truss

As much for effort as inspiration. The chief secretary to the Treasury has been almost everywhere the last few weeks – including modelling some slightly alarming trousers in the Mail on Sunday – to explain her free market, libertarian philosophy. Everyone knows what she thinks, but this will still perhaps not be enough.

And those not in the running

Among the senior figures not expected to run are Brandon Lewis, the party chairman, Chris Grayling, the transport secretary, and Philip Hammond, the chancellor, who acknowledges that he is not popular enough. Gavin Williamson’s recent sacking after the Huawei leak inquiry will also surely rule him out as an option this time around.

Labour had feared any deal it signed up to could be torn up by May’s successor, who is expected to come from the right wing of the party. May is likely to urge Labour MPs to seize the opportunity to legislate to give parliament a say over future trade negotiations, rather than leave the way clear for a new prime minister to leave the EU without a deal by default.

Downing Street signalled that the Wab was likely to include the Snell-Nandy amendment: a plan drawn up by the Labour MPs Gareth Snell and Lisa Nandy to ensure parliament is consulted on the next phase of negotiations.

However, May promised to accept it before the third meaningful vote, and neither Snell nor Nandy supported the government.