Theresa May was warned not to call a snap general election, memo reveals

Theresa May was warned that her decision to call a snap general election carried “a lot of risk”, a leaked memo has revealed.

The memo, obtained by the Mail on Sunday, suggests that campaign guru Sir Lynton Crosby had warned calling the election wasn’t a good idea.

When told about the plan to call the June 8 election by Tory campaign chief Lord Gilbert, according to the newspaper Australian Sir Lynton replied: “I’m not sure that’s a smart idea, mate.”

The leaked memo was written in April, just days before the Prime Minister announced her surprise decision to call a general election.

Titled ‘Election Strategic Note – April 2017’, the memo – drawing on focus group research and national polls – reportedly opened by warning there was “clearly a lot of risk involved with holding an early election – and there is a real need to nail down the ‘why’ for doing so now”.

The document warned there was a risk the Tory vote share would end up “broadly similar” to that achieved by David Cameron in 2015 when he won a narrow victory, rather than the landslide sought by Mrs May.

It also voiced concerns that Mrs May’s strong opinion poll leads at the time meant there were “exceptionally high expectations” she would return to Number 10 “leading voters to believe that they can vote for the best local MP while still remaining secure in the knowledge that Jeremy Corbyn will not be PM”.

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Theresa May’s gamble with the general election backfired, leading her to lose her Commons majority and forcing her to rely on a deal with the Democratic Unionist Party.

Last week, on a trip to Japan, the PM insisted she was “not a quitter” and would fight the next general election, but opinion polls have suggested she should resign if the Conservative Party wants to stay in office.

A Survation poll of just over 1,000 people for the Mail on Sunday put Labour on 43%, a five-point lead over the Tories on 38%.

According to the poll, 42% of voters said it was “unthinkable” that Mrs May will fight the next election – including 39% of Tory supporters – and 40% backed Mr Corbyn to win the next election.

A total of 31% said the Tories were more likely to win the next election if Mrs May quit, more than double the 15% who said they were less likely to succeed.

Boris Johnson was backed by 19% to succeed her – 21% among Tory voters – with Jacob Rees-Mogg backed by 9% (including 15% of Tories) and Philip Hammond on 8% (12% among Tory voters).