Three local seats to watch as YouGov predicts 'red wave' for Coventry and Warwickshire

Conor Knell

10 June 2024 at 10:04 am·2-min read

Mayor Richard Parker and Sir Keir Starmer at The ICC in Birmingham on Saturday, May 4 — -Credit: (Image: Anthony Devlin/Getty Images)

Three Warwickshire constituencies could be won by Labour in the upcoming General Election according to poll site YouGov, sparking a red wave across the local area. Labour are predicted to safely retain all three seats in Coventry as well as Warwick and Leamington Spa.

But polls suggest that Nuneaton, Rugby, and Bedworth & North Warwickshire could all be Labour gains from Conservative MPs. The latter of those three seats is the tightest race in our area thus far, with only 4% between the Labour and Conservative candidates.

According to YouGov, this makes it Warwickshire’s tossup seat, along with 131 others around the country where the margins are five percentage points or less.

In spite of this, Kenilworth & Southam, Meriden & Solihull East, and Stratford-on-Avon are bucking the trend, and are expected to remain firmly with the Conservatives.

This latest MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) projection asked 60,000 respondents across the country how they would vote, were an election to be held tomorrow. The results showed Labour would land a 194-seat majority at the election, securing a total of 422 seats.

If this projection were to become reality on election day, Keir Starmer’s majority would be larger than that of Tony Blair in 1997. It would also be the second largest majority in Britain’s political history, following Stanley Baldwin’s 210 in 1924.

Overall, the Conservatives would be set to lose a total 223 seats, leaving the Tories with just 140. This would be the party’s worst performance at an election in over a century when in 1906 then-prime minister Arthur Balfour lost 246 seats in an election against the last Keir to lead the Labour Party - Keir Hardie.

Further afield, the projection showed that Labour and the Lib Dems were set to sweep through the London seats and Labour were due to win big in Yorkshire and the North-West, following a successful showing there in the local government elections. Labour were also set to take over 50% of the SNP’s seats, focused particularly on the central belt of Scotland. This would mean the Liberal Democrats would become the third largest party in the country - a position they haven’t held since 2010.

The Greens also had a good showing in the projection as they could take their second ever seat in Parliament - Bristol Central. Meanwhile, Reform look set to go away empty handed for now.

For more information about candidates running in constituencies across the local area, you can see the Coventry candidates here; Rugby candidates here; Kenilworth and Southam here; Stratford-on-Avon candidates here; Warwick and Leamington candidates here; Meriden and Solihull East candidates here; and Solihull West and Shirley candidates here.

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