The three things you really need to know about the Welsh NHS right now

Ambulances outside  UHW University Hospital of Wales Cardiff
-Credit: (Image: MEDIA WALES)


Difficulties getting a GP appointment, no NHS dentists left, and people waiting years for a knee replacement. They're annecdotes we are all familiar with but they paint a picture of the reality of the NHS in Wales right now.

During the summer months, the pressure on the NHS tends to ease. There are fewer people with seasonal illnesses, fewer people having trips and falls, and overall, fewer people getting ill.

However, the latest NHS performance data which is released monthly by the Welsh Government and Stats Wales, shows that if anything, this year, things are getting worse at the moment. Waiting lists are continuing to increase to record-levels each month, and more and more people are needing to use NHS services.

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To put it simply, the NHS is working extremely hard with the resources it has, but more and more people in Wales are getting sick, and the NHS can't keep up. Here are the three things you need to know about the NHS in Wales right now:

1. Waiting lists are continuing to reach record-highs month on month

Over the last few months, the number of people waiting for treatment on the NHS in Wales has reached record-breaking highs each month. This means the number of people needing treatment, is drastically outnumbering the amount of people getting that treatment.

Back in February, a top doctor warned that waiting lists in Wales were "essentially in limbo" after there had been "no significant improvement for months." Professor Jon Barry, director in Wales at the Royal College of Surgeons of England made the comments relating to the waiting lists in December, where there had been a decrease in patient pathways from 758,800 to just over 756,300.

However, since then, things have only got worse. The summer months tend to see a downward trend, with less people needing treatment, however, this year the stats show that trend is being buckled.

The data that is published each month looks at the number of patient pathways, this does not mean individual patients, as one individual could be waiting for more than one treatment, so could be counted in the patient pathway data multiple times.

This number, as well as the number of patients, has increased to record levels each month for the last three months.

Patient pathways over the last few months:

  • December: 756,300

  • January: 755,400

  • February: 763,100 (the first record high)

  • March: 768,900

  • April: 775,000 (a new record high)

The number of individuals waiting for treatment:

November: 584,000 December: NA January: 586,500 February: 591,600 (the first record high) March: 599,100 April: 602,900

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2. NHS activity is at exceptionally high levels and services can't keep up with the demand

The number of people making contact with the NHS each month is also on the rise. In May, there were just over 36,600 emergency calls to the Welsh Ambulance Service. That is an average of 1,182 calls per day, on average 87 more calls per day than the previous month, and 30 more per day than the same month last year.

There were also an average of 165 immediately life-threatening calls made each day in May, 12 more than in April, and the highest on record. Director of the Welsh NHS Confederation, Darren Hughes, described the figures as "sobering reading."

He said: "NHS leaders are all too aware that this is not just a series of numbers on a page, but thousands of people’s lives being affected. The statistics also show sustained high levels of demand on the service, with NHS leaders telling us patients are more ill and therefore needing more treatment.

“We must acknowledge the relentless hard work of health and care staff and the care they do provide to thousands of people, day in, day out. NHS activity is at exceptionally high levels, it just cannot keep up with the record levels of demand coming in through the front door.

“The NHS cannot deliver effectively for all patients when things continue to run so hot. We need commitments from governments to longer term thinking, including focusing on prevention, shifting more care into the community, capital investment to make NHS estates more efficient and ringfenced investment so social care staff can have parity of pay. Without this, we cannot expect to see the meaningful change we all want to see.”

3. The number waiting longer than two years for treatment has increased for the first time in two years

In a statement, a spokesperson from the Welsh Government described the NHS performance figures as "disappointing". It is the first time in two years, that the number of people waiting more than two years for treatment, has increased.

For the 24 consecutive months before April, the waiting list decreased. Following the coronavirus pandemic, the Welsh Government set out an ambitious goal of eradicating all two-year waits by March 2023. However, this target was not met.

Just under 21,300 pathways were waiting more than two years. This is 69.8% lower than the peak. The average (median) time people are waiting for treatment on the NHS, at the end of April, was 22 weeks.

The Welsh Government has repeatedly said the NHS is prioritising the most urgent cases, however, many thousands of people are still waiting in pain for procedures they desperately need.

There are seven specialities that the Welsh Government recognises as exceptionally challenging to reduce waits for, these include: dermatology, general Surgery, ophthalmology, urology, gynaecology, orthopaedics and ear, nose and throat.