Arsenal or Man City? Who Telegraph writers think will win the Premier League

Pep Guardiola (left to right), Erling Haaland, Bukayo Saka and Mikel Arteta - Title race predictions: A five-point lead with a game in hand – will Arsenal win the Premier League?
Pep Guardiola (left to right), Erling Haaland, Bukayo Saka and Mikel Arteta - Title race predictions: A five-point lead with a game in hand – will Arsenal win the Premier League?

Having reached the midway point of the campaign, Telegraph Sport’s team of football writers ponder the question on the lips of title-starved Arsenal and perennial winners Manchester City: can Mikel Arteta end the 19-year wait, or will Pep Guardiola be adding a seventh Premier League title to their trophy cabinet in May?

Sam Dean

Winners: Manchester City
Arsenal have defied all expectations and have even answered some of the critics who thought an injury to a key player would derail their title charge. They lost Gabriel Jesus and have simply carried on without him, thanks in large part to the excellence of Eddie Nketiah.

And yet the nagging feeling remains that a lack of squad depth will ultimately cost Mikel Arteta’s team, especially once the Europa League resumes. They have shown they can cope without Jesus, but can they cope without players like Martin Odegaard and Bukayo Saka? The starting line-up is so strong, but there is a clear drop-off to the players behind them. Against the might of Manchester City, that could prove crucial.

Chris Bascombe

Winners: Manchester City
Arsenal have the advantage but City’s relentlessness in the final straight will test the psychological resolve of the leaders. They will need to have stretched their lead beyond 10 points with 10 games left to keep them at bay.

John Percy

Winners: Manchester City
While Arsenal continue to defy all the doubters and keep winning, Manchester City will just about do it. The two games between the clubs are obviously crucial but I think City will have the edge. With the second game at the Etihad, it will almost resemble a two-legged semi-final and that will suit Pep Guardiola’s players. I also suspect Arsenal’s reunion with Unai Emery at a resurgent Aston Villa on February 18 could prove a pivotal moment in the title race.

Jeremy Wilson

Winners: Manchester City
Arsenal continue to surprise and delight at every juncture and they will be helped if Manchester City can progress to the latter rounds of the Champions League. But it is easy to forget that we are only halfway through the league season and the two clubs must still play each other twice. City can be relied upon to get close to 90 points, meaning Arsenal will need to average around two points per game in the second of the season for a first title since 2004. Very possible but still a tall order.

Thom Gibbs

Winners: Manchester City
As impressive as Arsenal have been in recent weeks, it is worth remembering that we are not really towards the end of January, at least not by the Premier League’s usual schedule. The World Cup means we have only reached what would be the turn of the year in a normal season. It is a small distinction but an important one, especially given the two remaining Arsenal vs Manchester City meetings. I expect City’s experience and depth to give them a narrow advantage and a fifth title in six seasons.

 Pep Guardiola issues instructions to Riyad Mahrez - Title race predictions: A five-point lead with a game in hand – will Arsenal win the Premier League? - Getty Images/Michael Steele
Pep Guardiola issues instructions to Riyad Mahrez - Title race predictions: A five-point lead with a game in hand – will Arsenal win the Premier League? - Getty Images/Michael Steele

Sam Wallace

Winners: Arsenal
Why not? It is hard to put a dent in season-on-season dominance of the championship-winning machine that Abu Dhabi has built, but every now and again the opportunity presents itself. Liverpool took theirs in 2020. Going further back to before the Pep Guardiola era of omnipotence, Leicester City’s 2016 miracle was built on a first XI carved in stone and no European midweek football. Arsenal have a bit more squad depth than that and they are certainly capable of beating any side at the Emirates, where Manchester City must come in two weeks’ time. This is an excellent Arsenal side and they have a cause to rally around now.

Luke Edwards

Winners: Arsenal
I had been expecting Arsenal to drop off in the league but they have passed all tests up to this point and there is a real momentum behind them. Clubs are always at their most powerful when there is a synergy between the team and its supporters and Arsenal have not had this unity of purpose and desire for some time. It is rocket fuel.

I don’t think Manchester City’s victory over Arsenal in the FA Cup matters too much and may even help the London team in the title race as they will have some time off. There is pressure on both teams and I just think Arsenal will have enough, especially with the points gap they already have, to stay ahead in the race. City will probably have to beat them twice in the league to stand a chance of overtaking them and I don’t see that happening.

James Ducker

Winners: Arsenal 
I’m going to row back from what I said a few weeks ago when I was still backing Manchester City to win it. City had 45 points after 19 matches in 2018/19 and ended up taking an eye-watering 54 over the next 19, including winning their final 14 matches, to pip Liverpool to the title by a point. They have 45 points after 20 matches this time around and I just don’t think collectively, or individually, they are playing nearly well enough to put another such extraordinary run together.

I do wonder if City’s focus has drifted to the Champions League, not that it’s easy to prioritise competitions and flick a switch if you are not playing well. The fact they have two games to play against Arsenal gives them hope but City still have plenty of other tough fixtures to navigate and I think Mikel Arteta’s side have considerable wriggle room.

Matt Law

Winners: Manchester City
I’m not as confident about this prediction as I was at the start of the season, but I still believe Arsenal will slip up and let City back in. The two games between the clubs will obviously be crucial, as will this weekend when City must beat Tottenham Hotspur. I don’t see Spurs doing their north London rivals a favour.