Boris Johnson has faced down Tory rebellions before, but this one is different

The split between Downing Street and Conservative MPs over Dominic Cummings can be summarised in a single message. After a bank holiday weekend made up of Tory MPs venting their fury both on social media and over WhatsApp, Conservative MP Danny Kruger wrote to fellow MPs on Tuesday in a bid to calm them. After sharing sympathy over complaints from constituents and multiple media reports, Johnson’s former political secretary laid out a political truth: “No 10 won’t budge, so calling for DC to go is basically declaring no confidence in PM.”

As someone who worked full time in Downing Street up until last year’s general election when he became an MP, Kruger is well placed to speak for how the government plans to style this out. Since Johnson entered No 10, bringing many Vote Leave staff with him, there has been an effort to centralise power and a shift away from paying much attention to the parliamentary party. Johnson showed with Brexit that he was happy to withdraw the whip from MPs who disagreed with him. Kruger’s suggestion to MPs was that No 10 plans to do the same now.

The problem? As Johnson’s government finds its popularity falling amid a growing public backlash, it’s a message that few MPs want to hear right now. And unlike with Brexit, when the voters that the Tories were trying to appeal to in large supported Johnson’s aim (delivering Brexit), this time it’s the wavering MPs who are currently more in tune with public opinion.

When reports first emerged that Johnson’s most senior aide had travelled 260 miles from London during lockdown, the first instinct in No 10 was to fight it. A brief statement was given and the whips moved to firmly encourage MPs and ministers to take to social media and defend Cummings. However, as more allegations have emerged and complaints from constituents have increased, that line has become harder to hold.

A number of ministers who initially tweeted their defence of Cummings feel as though they ought to have been warned that the picture could change – with details of the trip to Barnard Castle only emerging later. Meanwhile, a number of cabinet ministers have so far declined to send any public endorsement. While a handful of ministers spoke up for Johnson’s senior aide in Monday’s cabinet conference call, the silence from others was telling.

As Tory MPs worry that the defence of Cummings has weakened the government’s public health message and authority, there is growing annoyance that the No 10 operation has chosen to expend so much political capital on Cummings. Few believe the measures – which range from a personal defence by the prime minister to an impromptu press conference in the Rose Garden – would have been taken for anyone else.

“I don’t recall the orchestrated Twitter campaign when Robert Jenrick was in trouble over travelling during lockdown,” said one weary minister, in reference to an earlier row when the communities secretary found himself in the firing line for travelling to his parents’ home to deliver supplies.

There’s also disagreement about whether the press conference was effective. “It was as mad an idea as the Ed Stone, only this one actually happened in Downing Street,” said an MP of the one-time Labour leader’s huge tablet of pledges that was supposed to sit in the garden had he won the election.

With polling suggesting a fall in support for the Conservatives in recent days, to say the bulk of MPs are unhappy would be an understatement. But when it comes to the chances of a Tory revolt forcing No 10’s hand, doubts remain. More than 35 MPs have so far gone public to call for Cummings to go. However, even the rebels admit they need the number to increase before they have any chance of success. “There’s no chance of No 10 listening to us until it’s closer to 80,” said one MP. Though they already have almost enough MPs to wipe out Boris Johnson’s majority were any vote to take place, they feel they need this higher number to show it’s a rebellion that won’t peter out if a few people fall into line.

As for unhappy MPs yet to go public, they roughly fall into two groups: those who think they’ve taken the political hit anyway so Cummings may as well stay; and those who believe the longer he stays in post the worse the situation becomes.

“There’s no point crying over spilt milk,” said one MP. “Mistakes get made. We need to move on and give people a sense that we have a plan both for the economy and public health.” A minister reluctantly agreed: “I don’t really see how he can stay, but the damage is probably now indelible to some extent.”

Related: Boris Johnson should be protecting the nation. Instead he's protecting one man | Aditya Chakrabortty

Of the group still optimistic that Cummings could be forced out, they are looking to opinion polls and focus groups. Angry constituent emails mean it’s hard for this to be dismissed as a Westminster bubble story, with one MP reckoning the average number of angry emails is around 400. MPs are also waiting for Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 committee, to break his silence. “That could be a trigger for more MPs coming forward,” said one.

Whether or not the showdown comes, the whole episode has served to exacerbate existing tensions. Traditional Tory MPs have long been sceptical of Cummings whom they don’t regard as a card-carrying Conservative. “It’s our party’s reputation on the line. Ultimately it’s a game of chicken,” said one government figure. “And No 10 is not known for blinking.”

With Downing Street planning to brazen this out for now, the whips face an even bigger headache with party management. Unhappy MPs were already looking to the return of parliament next week to make their feelings known on lockdown, China and the economy. While government whips in part pushed for the end of the virtual parliament on the grounds that MPs in Westminster would be easier to control, at this rate they are heading for a nasty surprise.

• Katy Balls is the Spectator’s deputy political editor