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Trumpian Bravado Poses Risk for Sunak Amid Dueling UK-US Votes
(Bloomberg) -- Rishi Sunak wanted to show strength this week as he claimed victory on his pledge to clear the backlog of UK asylum cases. Instead, the prime minister underscored what allies fear is a growing political weakness.
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The premier came to office in late 2022 promising to govern with “integrity, professionalism and accountability” — an attempt to distance himself from his two predecessors, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss. Five targets announced 12 months ago, ranging from the economy to immigration and the National Health Service, would give voters a transparent way to judge him, he said.
But the strategy is unraveling as Sunak tries to bank credit for what he says is delivering on the goals. The prime minister is finding out, via his slumping approval ratings, that meeting targets that are far more narrowly defined than the way he presented them to voters is not working for him.
While members of his team do want Sunak to channel some right-leaning populist bravado, polls suggest the approach risks helping opposition efforts to link him negatively to Donald Trump in what could be the first overlapping elections in both the UK and US in 60 years.
The row over asylum claims illustrates the problem. Sunak’s office argues that the prime minister’s pledge was to clear the list of legacy applications made before June 2022, and with great fanfare on Monday, announced it was done.
The problem is that the reality is far less clear cut. Outstanding asylum claims still stand at more than 98,000 — albeit most dating from the period after June 2022. Yet the government fell short even under the terms of Sunak’s promise; the Home Office acknowledged there are still 4,500 cases from the earlier period that were too “complex” to rule on and remain outstanding.
Read more: Rishi Sunak Faces UK Watchdog Probe Over Asylum Backlog Claim
Amid the backlash, the UK’s official statistics watchdog said it will probe Sunak’s announcement. It’s just weeks since the body criticized Sunak for saying public debt is falling — another of his key pledges — when in fact it is rising. Again, the problem lies in the definition — Sunak’s team said the promise is to get debt falling after fives years, which it is currently forecast to do.
Sunak’s debt statement “may have undermined trust in the government’s use of statistics and quantitative analysis,” the watchdog concluded.
Participants in focus groups run by Keir Starmer’s opposition Labour Party, which holds a poll lead over the Tories of almost 20 points, have raised Sunak’s tendency to exaggerate his achievements. Party officials said voters were irritated by his declaration of victory on cutting inflation, despite higher prices now baked in during a cost-of-living crisis, and said he is sugarcoating efforts to improve the National Health Service and stop migrant boat crossings.
An opposition official said Sunak, who holidays in California and has an MBA from Stanford University, has an American-style trait of telling people things are going great, something they said British voters find patronizing.
“With over half the public viewing the prime minister as untrustworthy, Sunak would seem to be vulnerable to attacks over his integrity, especially given his pledge to restore accountability and rebuild trust,” said Will Jennings, politics professor at the University of Southampton. His ratings could fall further if he gains “a reputation for not being straight with voters,” he said.
Labour will try to portray Sunak as shifty and Starmer as someone voters can trust. In a speech Thursday, the Labour leader vowed to “clean up” politics, accusing the Tories of degrading public trust in Parliament. A Labour advert this week accused Sunak of thinking voters should be “grateful” for tax giveaways, even as stealth taxes increase the burden on families.
Those attacks will likely be stepped up ahead of the election. Sunak said this week he’s looking at the second half of the year, and it’s possible the UK and US votes could take place within days of each other as aides said the prime minister is considering a November polling day. Conservative Party strategists are already preparing for opposition attacks comparing Sunak to Trump.
While British voters may typically have limited interest in US elections until the final days, the Trump factor and the unusual election timing make its impact unpredictable, senior officials in the UK’s four main parties told Bloomberg.
Should he win the Republican nomination, the center-left Labour and Liberal Democrat parties see an opportunity to compare Trump’s rhetoric with leading politicians in the governing Conservative Party, including Sunak. With Trump polling badly in the UK, Labour and the Liberal Democrat officials plan to target what they will says is Sunak’s comparable dishonesty and bravado.
A Downing Street official countered that they welcomed attacks on Sunak as they would allow him to show he has a plan to tackle illegal immigration and other issues, while arguing Labour and the Liberal Democrats offer no alternatives. The premier will hold a question-and-answer session with voters on Monday, with aides keen to adopt a presidential-style campaign presenting him as an electoral asset willing to face scrutiny from the public.
Read more: Sunak No Longer More Popular Than Party Among Voters, Poll Says
Still, polls show voters are becoming more wary of Sunak. When he took office in October 2022, his net rating for trustworthiness was minus 9 points, according to YouGov. By last November, it had plummeted to minus 31. His personal approval rating also now trails the Tory party’s overall popularity.
A Tory adviser warned that if voters doubt Sunak’s word, it would blunt the impact of attacks planned by the Conservatives on Starmer. They said the premier should talk honestly about progress rather than exaggerating, which runs the risk of sounding desperate.
An added complication is that even some Conservatives politicians don’t see Sunak as an entirely honest broker. For example, some right-wing Tory lawmakers believed they had secured a commitment from Sunak to toughen up his flagship immigration law when it returns to Parliament this month.
Government officials have since indicated they’ll only consider very limited changes, risking a rebellion from some 28 MPs. Some Tories are also disturbed by the revelation Sunak held an unannounced meeting with Boris Johnson’s former adviser Dominic Cummings, one of the most controversial figures in British politics, even after publicly vowing he’d have nothing to do with him.
But it is Sunak’s personal standing with voters that is likely to most worry the British prime minister. There has been a “significant change in public perception,” Joe Armitage, lead UK analyst at political consultancy Global Counsel. That “marks a departure from the initial optimism surrounding his capability to rejuvenate the party, especially when he was Chancellor during the pandemic and polling more favorably than any other UK politician,” he said.
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