UK should brace for further restrictions, warns Professor Neil Ferguson

Professor Neil Ferguson, whose modelling led to the decision to impose the lockdown in March, has warned that the UK should not rule out more restrictions.

The Government has tightened rules on meeting in groups after a surge in infections prompted concerns over a second wave of coronavirus. From Monday, it will be illegal for people in England to gather in groups of more than six (see video below).

Prof Ferguson, an Imperial College epidemiologist, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme on Thursday: "One of the mistakes made early on in this crisis was being cautious in responding to the epidemic, and that led to the UK being later than we would have liked in locking down and therefore we saw the death toll [we had].

"And I am encouraged that now we are responding in a more timely manner – we have a lot more data available to track the epidemic."

He said "all the analysis" suggested there would be an "uptick in deaths in the coming weeks, so now is the time to respond", adding: "The measures just announced will take some weeks to have an effect, so we need to wait at this point and see how much it will flatten the curve.

"And then if that is not sufficient to bring the reproduction number below one so the epidemic starts shrinking again, then yes, we may need to clamp down in other areas."

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The former Sage adviser said people should "hesitate" at the "headlong rush to get everybody back into offices".

"The case number increase we've seen in the last two weeks does not yet account for the reopening of schools. So undoubtedly that may increase transmission still further and there may be a need therefore to reduce contacts in other settings," he told the BBC's Today programme.

Prof Ferguson said he was still working from home, and warned: "Certainly I think we should hesitate and maybe pause at the headlong rush to get everybody back into offices.

"But some people have to work and I completely understand the concerns in many quarters that everybody working at home has an economic impact, particularly on city centres."