UK GAS-Gas price surges in trading frenzy ahead of cold snap

LONDON, Feb 23 (Reuters) - British wholesale prompt gas prices climbed 50 percent in the week to reach mid-December highs as cold weather forecast, alongside a shortage of gas tankers and low reserves, stoked supply concerns. Dutch spot gas prices also climbed sharply.

* Day-ahead gas was up 12.63 pence, or 20.6 percent, at 74 pence per therm at 0917 GMT, as colder-than-expected temperature forecasts triggered a sharp hike in projected demand.

* The forecast turned colder overnight with average UK temperatures for Monday estimated 2.2 degrees Celsius lower than expected, at minus 0.8 degrees Celsius, according to data on Thomson Reuters Eikon.

* Commercial and residential demand for gas on Monday is now forecast up to 51 million cubic metres/day (mcm/day) higher at 297 mcm/day, Thomson Reuters (Dusseldorf: TOC.DU - news) data show.

* For working days next week, temperatures remained roughly unchanged with some estimates suggesting minus 2 degrees Celsius, reinforcing bullish trading sentiment.

* The gas contract for that period rallied 8.5 pence, or 13 percent, to 74 pence/therm.

* Gas for immediate delivery was up 6.2 pence at 67 pence/therm.

* Low stored reserves in Britain and northwest Europe are adding to supply concerns exacerbated by a marked decrease in liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments from Qatar, the world's biggest producer.

* The lack of LNG meant terminals kept flows to minimum levels for much of the winter, putting pressure on storage sites to fill the gap and accelerated the rundown of reserves, falling sharply from January, a market source said.

* He said LNG shipments were likely to head to southern Europe first where "volumes are lower as well at the moment."

* "I don't see much relief from LNG ships for the next 3 to 4 weeks," a European gas trader said.

* "If temperatures will really be as low as EC45 (weather model) suggests then this year's spot prices should come out unusually high," he said.

* "Q1 will be high because of cold weather, Q2 and Q3 high because of high injection rates of storages, and Q4 high because of Asian LNG demand," he added.

* Britain's ability to cope with demand shocks has been hampered following a decision to shut its biggest gas storage site, Rough.

* A Qatari LNG cargo docked at Milford Haven in Wales on Thursday. Britain received its last Qatari shipment in mid-December as the producer has focused on meeting higher demand in Asia.

* "The low level of LNG send-out in the UK is now more likely to continue into March, with the Al Ghariya going to Poland and other potential Q Max cargoes heading east from Ras Laffan," Thomson Reuters analyst Oliver Sanderson said.

* The March contract rose by 1.35 pence to 57.25 pence/therm.

* Britain's gas system was oversupplied by 25.1 million cubic metres (mcm), with demand forecast at 310 mcm and supply at 335.1 mcm/day, National Grid (LSE: NG.L - news) data showed.

* Gas supply from Norway to Britain on Thursday was flowing unchanged at 134 mcm/day.

* In the Dutch gas market, the day-ahead gas price at the TTF hub rose by 6.45 euro, or 30 percent, to 28.45 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh).

* The benchmark Dec (Shanghai: 600875.SS - news) -17 EU carbon contract was up 0.11 euro at 9.83 euros a tonne

* Thomson Reuters analyst view: http://emea1.apps.cp.extranet.thomsonreuters.biz/cms/?pageid=united-kingdom-gas (Reporting by Oleg Vukmanovic; Editing by Edmund Blair)