Yahoo News The way a Welsh region can actually be axed as brave calls needed
Nigel Walker's appearance on BBC's ScrumV on Sunday night has ignited plenty of debate among Welsh rugby fans, with the suggestion of cutting Wales' professional sides down to three the main bone of contention.
Even the most optimistic Welsh rugby supporter would admit the game in this country is at its lowest ebb since 2003, with all four regions - Cardiff, Dragons, Ospreys and Scarlets - languishing in the bottom half of the United Rugby Championship, although Toby Booth's side have punched well above their weight this season. When asked by ScrumV presenter Lauren Jenkins last night whether cutting down to three regions was a possibility, Walker confirmed it was.
"Is it on the table? It's obviously got to be an option which has to be considered and discussed," the Welsh Rugby Union's executive director of rugby told the BBC. "Which way we go - the PRB, the regions and the WRU - on that is yet to be determined.
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"But of course, reducing to three regions has to be on the table. It doesn't mean it will follow and there will be three regions, because you have to get agreement and come up with a mechanism to going down from four to three. But it will be discussed at the appropriate time."
So why are we having this discussion, would going down to three professional sides be the right thing to do and if so how do we get there? Rugby correspondent Steffan Thomas takes a forensic look at the situation.
Why is going down to three regions a possibility?
Well, unless you've been living on Mars for the past few years, one glance at the URC table will tell you everything you need to know about how uncompetitive the Welsh sides currently are. To their credit, the Ospreys have been the exception to the rule in winning twice out in South Africa this season, reaching the Challenge Cup quarter-finals and remaining in contention for a URC play-off place.
But on the whole the Welsh sides are uncompetitive against the better teams, especially the Irish provinces, while they are a million miles away from competing for silverware and that is highly unlikely to change anytime soon.
The main reason for cutting a region would be financial. If one was to scroll through the endless debates over on the Welsh rugby side of social media platform X you could be forgiven for thinking the WRU are sitting on a significant pot of money it refuses to give the regions.
But this is not the case whatsoever, and while for years the WRU were guilty of not investing enough money into the professional game, the landscape has changed drastically over the past few years. Originally there was set to be over £30m shared between the four regions next season, but WalesOnline understands it is now set to be in the region of £13m of central distribution.
In reality it will be £13m plus £4m of CVC money and circa £8m of TV revenue, which amounts to £25m between the four. However, in terms of central funding it is expected to be in the region of £13m between the four, which simply is not enough to be successful.
Travel costs must also be considered, especially considering the regions compete in the URC, which is an inter-continental competition. WalesOnline has been told the total cost of travelling over the course of a season is close to £500,000 per club.
How could the WRU cut a region?
It's all well and good the WRU wanting to cut a region but actually doing it is an entirely different proposition and it wouldn't be easy. But it is possible. So, the obvious way of going down to three sides is if one side went to the wall on its own in a similar fashion to the what happened to English clubs Wasps, Worcester Warriors, London Irish and Jersey Reds.
The other way is if one region decided to go of its own accord or if an agreement was struck between two sides to merge. This very nearly happened in 2019 when both the Ospreys and the Scarlets signed heads of terms to merge into one side but this fell through at the last minute, which emphasises just how difficult it can be to get people to agree in Welsh rugby.
The other way is if the WRU and perhaps the funding directors of the other regions could pay one to go away. There is precedent for this in Wales when the WRU and one of the game's main benefactors Leighton Samuel both owned 50% of the now defunct Celtic Warriors.
In the end the WRU paid £1.25m for his share with the remaining four regions paying £312,500 each. This would be the more straightforward way to go down to three sides.
But if the WRU wanted to take a strong hand it could issue all four professional sides with the two-year notice period which is included in the Professional Rugby Agreement if it wants to cut a professional side. Of course the WRU can't force any of the four to close because they are all private businesses but they do own shares in the URC and can decide what sides compete in it.
With regards what region would go if the WRU did serve notice to all four on the PRA, the safest way would be to put it out to tender. Sides would then have to apply to based on a number of criteria such as:
Geographical location and demographic coverage;
Heritage, brand, diaspora and community;
Performance over time with regards silverware, pathway production and contribution to the national side;
Stadium and infrastructure;
Economics, commercial performance, crowds, ability to be successful and sponsorship support.
The WRU could then set up an independent committee with the potential to appeal. In reality if the WRU attempted to get rid of a region, the one in question would likely take legal action so the more transparent this process is then the governing body will be on steadier ground.
What are the pros and cons of cutting a team?
The first one is obvious. The WRU does not currently have the money to adequately fund four professional sides to a level where they can compete in the latter stages of competitions. The only way it could currently do so is if they employed an aggressive tiered funding model with two fully-fat sides and two semi-skimmed, but even then it would be difficult.
On Sunday night's ScrumV programme, Walker said: "We've talked over a period of time about 2+2, 3+1, 2+1+1 - there were all these permutations you could get and all those things are on the table. But my view is if you're going to bite the bullet and you think that four regions are not affordable, it would probably be better to bite the bullet and go to three so you've got certainty.
"Because 2+1+1, just to pick an example, is quite difficult. And to get from four to 2+1+1 would probably take more conversations than to get it to three."
It is not purely just a matter of money either, because currently Wales also does not have the right volume of top-end professional- level players to service four sides.
Anyone who thinks they have is kidding themselves and the results over the last few years backs that up. Wales has a decent amount of international-class players with some good players coming through the academies, but the marzipan layer is nowhere near as strong as it once was, while each side is limited on how many overseas players they can sign.
There are those within the game in Wales who believe resources are scattered too thinly and it would be better to concentrate talent into three or even two strong sides. Currently the gap between the regional and international game is too far and this needs to be bridged.
Cutting down to three sides with, perhaps two very strong ones, would increase the standard of rugby and in time lead to a stronger Wales side. There is an argument that if Wales were able to stop the talent drain to England at a young age they would be able to service four sides but this doesn't address the lack of finances available.
Of course there are drawbacks to scaling back the number of professional sides. The first one is the remaining regions would have to take on the debt of the side which goes, while there would be minimal CVC clawback and TV income would drop from £8m-£6m. Also, it's worth considering whether three sides would give Wales sufficient opportunities to players emerging from the development pathways.
But it could also lead to a significant chunk of supporters walking away and becoming disenfranchised, while in the eyes of some supporters merging two sides would be the same as cutting two. On the flip side, Welsh rugby could take the approach of prioritising future generations who are more likely to be attracted by successful sides who are hopefully competing and winning silverware on a regular basis.
But whatever route they take will result in significant conflict from different areas of the professional game. There is no hiding away from that. It does look as if the WRU's approach is to hope there's a better economic outlook in a two years' time when the TV contracts are up and money from the new Nations Cup should be rolling in.
But even so, the reality is the WRU can either show some leadership and force the issue as its former CEO David Moffett did 22 years ago, or kick the can down the road, only for the three region question to rear its ugly head again in a few years' time. Currently Welsh rugby is professional with a small p and these are the fundamental issues those in power should be discussing.
Welsh rugby can either continue to die a slow and painful death or it can actually make some brave decisions to save the game in this country.
