Why Does Scotland Matter So Much On 7 May?

Why Does Scotland Matter So Much On 7 May?

How is it that Nicola Sturgeon seems to be calling the shots ahead of the election? This and other key questions on Scotland are answered in our Q&A.

:: Why is Scotland so important in the General Election?

The rise of the Scottish National Party.

It won just six seats in 2010 – Labour won 41, the Conservatives 1 seat and the Lib Dems 11 - but it is tipped to take 52 of the 59 seats in Scotland. It's a massive gain and will make it the third largest party in the House of Commons.

Because neither Labour nor the Conservatives is expected to win a majority it means the SNP could hold the balance of power and therefore decide who to put in Number 10.

:: And who's that going to be?

SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon has ruled out any coalition with David Cameron's Conservatives and has publicly offered her support to Ed Miliband.

Using Sky News' latest predictions of the seats the parties would win in the House of Commons that means Labour in a deal with the SNP would have a majority.

:: So what’s the problem?

Conditions. Ms Sturgeon has said she will not support the cuts Labour is proposing nor will she support maintaining the Trident nuclear deterrent. There are a number of other smaller issues on which the two parties disagree.

And it's hard to get away from the fact the SNP's main purpose is to break up the union and bring about an independent Scotland. Ms Sturgeon will not rule out a second referendum on independence.

:: But isn't that blackmail?

It's certainly one term being used to describe the offer, most recently by former Conservative prime minister Sir John Major, who said a Labour/SNP deal would mean a "daily dose of political blackmail".

The other popular term being used by critics is "holding to ransom", and the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and UKIP have all warned a Labour/SNP arrangement would be dangerous.

Tory grandee Lord Tebbitt has accused David Cameron of employing "scare tactics".

It's certainly true that any Labour-led government would be hamstrung to a greater or lesser degree by a bloc of Scottish MPs in parliament.

But that's coalitions and party deals for you - the little party can hold a disproportionate amount of power.

:: What has Ed Miliband said?

At the moment, thanks but no thanks. He says his party's views are significantly different and he will not agree on Trident.

He has ruled out a formal coalition, like the one between the Tories and the Lib Dems, but has left the door open to making some kind of deal.

It could see the SNP supporting Labour on some issues but allowed to make its point by voting against on other matters - a vote by vote agreement.

:: So what would a Labour SNP deal look like?

Hard to say. Realistically, the SNP would have to vote through a Labour-led government's programme for the next five years - as laid out in the Queen's Speech which is expected on 27 May.

If the party voted against it because, say, it contained the spending cuts it didn't like and support for Trident, Labour would lose and it would count as a vote of no confidence.

A deal would probably be thrashed out behind closed doors before that, which would see the nationalists vote through a revised Labour programme - ie there will be some fudge.

It is worth noting that the Conservatives support Trident and would likely vote with Labour on keeping the nuclear deterrent.

:: That means the SNP has all the power?

Don't be too hasty. Mr Miliband may have some power here - although there is a serious game of chicken to play.

Does Ms Sturgeon think SNP voters would forgive her if she failed to support Mr Miliband and allowed the Conservatives to return to power? She has said it is her job to convince the rest of the UK she is on their side.

Remember the Conservatives really are not very popular in Scotland – the joke runs that there are more pandas in the country than Tory MPs (two pandas for those not up to speed with stock levels at Edinburgh Zoo).

:: Hang on a minute, though. How can Scotland have its own parliament and MPs in Westminster?

Ah well that's because Westminster gave a whole lot of powers to Scotland to run itself. That includes health, education, law, local government and housing - and more since last year's referendum.

But while it has its own parliament, there are still some areas that are under the control of Westminster and so it has MPs too.

:: And how come Nicola Sturgeon is calling the shots if she's not an MP?

As Scottish First Minister she is the leader of the party and ultimately responsible for policy.

Ex-first minister Alex Salmond is expected to be elected as MP, but Ms Sturgeon has made it quite clear she will lead any negotiations with Labour.

It's a bit like Nigel Farage is leader of UKIP, yet he is not an MP. The same is true of Natalie Bennett, the leader of the Green Party.

:: So Scottish MPs can vote on English matters, but can English MPs vote on Scottish ones?

No, not really. It's called the West Lothian Question. Scottish MPs can vote on English matters, but English MPs cannot vote on any of the areas that are under the control of Holyrood.

:: But isn't that a bit unfair?

It's a long-standing issue and one that reared its head after further powers were promised to Scotland following the vote on independence.

Labour has been reluctant to tackle it because of the number of Labour MPs there. David Cameron has promised English Votes for English Laws.

It also brings us back to where we began - why Scotland is so important to this election.

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