Why Olaf Scholz can't deliver on his promises to Ukraine, and how it's giving Germany a credibility issue

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine forced Germany to tear up decades of soft-touch defence policies and eventually pledge to send heavy weapons to Ukraine.

Within days of the start of the war, Chancellor Olaf Scholz declared the start of  a “new era”.

But three months later - as he visits Kyiv for the first time since Russia's invasion - he stands accused of failing to deliver on his promises of lethal aid. Even light weapons like machine guns for Ukraine are reportedly drying up.

The apparent delays have caused a rift between Berlin and Kyiv, with Ukrainian officials repeatedly condemning what they see as Germany’s “hesitancy” in helping it fight the war.

But why has Germany been so slow to arm Ukraine against Russia, and why has Mr Scholz so far failed to fulfil the promises he has given to Kyiv?

“The starting point is, if the chancellor wants things to happen, he can make it happen. It's all about political will,” said Christian Mölling, Research Director at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP).

The chancellor’s own hesitations reflect a long-standing pacifism among the German people.

An annual survey, taken before the war broke out, showed that the majority of Germans believe diplomacy is the best way to resolve conflicts.

The Bundeswehr, Germany’s army, which as of February 28 numbered around 180,000 active-duty military personnel and 80,000 civilians, rarely participates in anything other than peacekeeping missions.

Using Germany’s military power for political ends has not been a regular consideration in the country for 30 years, Mr Mölling said.

Germany’s history also casts a long shadow over its politics, and insiders have said there is a real concern among government officials that German tanks, if sent to Ukraine, could end up rolling across Russian land again.

The apparent lack of urgency with which Germany has gone about arming Ukraine, he told The Telegraph, could also be explained by a failure among the federal government to grasp the war’s broader ramifications.

“Several parts of German decision-making haven't really arrived at the fact that Ukrainians are not just fighting for some abstract ‘keeping up international order thing’, they are fighting for European security.”

Over the course of the conflict, Ukraine's forces have lurched from the brink of defeat as Russian tanks bore down on Kyiv, to pushing back the invaders and inflicting heavy losses before reaching a stalemate in the east.

The chancellor’s unwillingness to change his strategy as the conflict evolved has also shaped Germany’s response and delayed the delivery of weapons, Mr Mölling said.

“In principle, it's a good thing that Scholz wants to take decisions that can be sustainable, and he tries to think things through to the end,” he said. “But as situations are changing all the time – especially in war – if you build your strategy on a very short horizon, then you have to re-evaluate.”

Wars, he added, “are so dynamic that you can't have the one plan that will be successful – it's a lot about flexibility, and it's a lot about capabilities and options that you generate for yourself. And we are now in a situation where options are almost down to zero”.

Speaking on May 8, as civilians were being evacuated from the besieged Azovstal steelworks in Ukraine’s Mariupol, Mr Scholz made his strongest declaration of support for Ukraine yet.

“It was the Allied military victory that ended the Nazi dictatorship. We Germans are grateful for that to this day [...] now Putin wants to subjugate Ukraine and destroy its culture and identity. Doing our part is what 'never again' means today," he said.

But the chancellor’s words have so far not translated into deeds – even deliveries of light weapons like machine guns and mines have reportedly begun to dry up recently.

Ed Arnold, a Research Fellow for European Security at the Royal United Services Institute, said: “Political commitment is the easy part. Backing it up with action is much harder as the relatively new German government is finding out.”

The chancellor, he said, “has made a habit of providing little detail on timeframes for delivery and also backtracking on some commitments”. As a result, he added, “Germany is developing a credibility issue which goes against its longstanding reputation for efficiency”.