Why Pact Group Holdings Ltd (ASX:PGH) Could Be Worth Watching

Pact Group Holdings Ltd (ASX:PGH), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw a double-digit share price rise of over 10% in the past couple of months on the ASX. As a stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. But what if there is still an opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Pact Group Holdings’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if the opportunity still exists.

See our latest analysis for Pact Group Holdings

What is Pact Group Holdings worth?

According to my valuation model, Pact Group Holdings seems to be fairly priced at around 3.9% below my intrinsic value, which means if you buy Pact Group Holdings today, you’d be paying a reasonable price for it. And if you believe that the stock is really worth A$2.35, then there isn’t much room for the share price grow beyond what it’s currently trading. Is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Since Pact Group Holdings’s share price is quite volatile, we could potentially see it sink lower (or rise higher) in the future, giving us another chance to buy. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.

What does the future of Pact Group Holdings look like?

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. Though in the case of Pact Group Holdings, it is expected to deliver a negative earnings growth of -13%, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? Currently, PGH appears to be trading around its fair value, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to de-risk your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock optimal for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on the stock, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on PGH for a while, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. The price seems to be trading at fair value, which means there’s less benefit from mispricing. In addition to this, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help gel your views on PGH should the price fluctuate below its true value.

With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Pact Group Holdings you should be aware of.

If you are no longer interested in Pact Group Holdings, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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