Who will win the US election? Our experts’ predictions change after Biden’s disastrous debate

For the first time in the course of the US election, Donald Trump appears to have the edge over Joe Biden, according to The Telegraph’s experts.

The Telegraph is asking five experts to regularly predict who will win one of the tightest US elections in recent history.

National polls show Mr Biden and Trump are separated by the finest of margins in a bitter campaign.

Following developments in the US, our experts will periodically plot their likely winner on a sliding scale, each time explaining their decision.

This week’s updated predictions come after Mr Biden’s disastrous debate on Thursday raised serious questions about his status as the Democratic nominee for November’s election.

It is no exaggeration to say the 2024 debate may have cost Mr Biden the election.

The president’s team always knew debating was a risk, but hoped to jump-start his stuttering campaign by reminding voters of Trump’s deficiencies.

Instead, the debate lifted the veil on Mr Biden’s physical and mental infirmity. Voters’ concerns about the 81-year-old were vindicated by the performance.

Few can now feel confident the commander-in-chief will be fit to continue in post for another four years.

That is not to say Trump can be complacent about the months ahead.

Polls show a majority of Americans disapprove of both candidates, and the spotlight on the Republican will now be brighter than ever.

If he is to reclaim the White House, he will have to continue to show the discipline he demonstrated on stage in Atlanta.

Nationally, polling throughout this election has been neck and neck, but last night’s debates saw a definitive answer: Trump well and truly won the debates.

A snap poll from CNN, who hosted the debate, showed Trump winning with 67 per cent to Mr Biden’s 33 per cent. Trump will be hoping this will reflect in a polling boost over the coming days.

It’s difficult to measure quite how much impact debates actually have in an election, especially in a country as partisan as America. However, if Mr Biden’s aim was to convince independents, he has seemingly failed.

A focus group of undecideds held by pollster Frank Luntz leaned decisively against Mr Biden. “The expectations tonight for Biden were to just show up and look alive – and he blew it!” one member said.

The debate made it very likely Mr Biden will lose in November, for it crystalised the choice.

Trump, a little more disciplined than in 2020, is running on his economic record and the border crisis – the two things he scores best on. Mr Biden, sadly, looked near death.

No matter how well-off the country might materially be, I’ve heard it said by several US commentators that he makes America feel bad about itself. A man defined by the vigorous ambition of the 1960s now feels like its mummified torchbearer.

In 1984, Ronald Reagan had a bad debate that sparked talk about his age. But he was still far ahead of Walter Mondale in the polls, and bounced back in a second encounter “youth and inexperience of my opponent, etc”.

But Reagan at his worst was still far better than Mr Biden, who is rambling, stuttering and almost on his knees. It’s time Jill persuaded him to step down from the ticket.

Talk about a bloodbath.

There’s no getting away from it: this debate was a disaster for Mr Biden.

His persistent cough, raspy voice, and evident confusion will have voters across the country seriously doubting his ability to continue his first term as president, let alone secure a second.

Trump, by contrast, was on his best behaviour, answering questions with uncharacteristic precision. Democratic operatives wanted to distract from Mr Biden’s age. After tonight, there’s nothing else the American people will be talking about.

The bar for Mr Biden in the first debate was low, and he didn’t meet it.

For months now the White House has been whining about coverage of the president’s slip-ups and complaining the media deliberately paints him in a bad light.

On Thursday Mr Biden showed voters that is nonsense. It was a brutal reminder of just how frail he is.

Ahead of November, he needs to scoop up as many of the dwindling number of undecided voters as possible, and concerns about his age are already the main thing holding him back.

The debate didn’t just make him look like a man who had sunk his campaign – he looked like a man unfit to hold the office of president. I have swung my prediction significantly towards a Trump victory.

Here is how our experts’ predictions have changed over the past four months.

Methodology

Our experts are asked to plot their decision on a scale of 100, where 0 is a Joe Biden landslide, 50 is a tie and 100 is a Donald Trump landslide.