‘Robots will steal our jobs... and managers are doomed’, says new book on future of work

A top economist has warned that the futuristic notion of robots taking our jobs is about to be realised - and the role of a manager will soon be consigned to the dustbin of history.

Sergiusz Prokurat is a Polish economist whose new book, Work 2.0: Nowhere to Hide, claims that the impact of 2008’s economic crash has been underestimated.

The idea that things will ever return to “normal” is wrong, Prokurat argues - the world of work has changed forever, with millions of jobs gone forever, as the world of work becomes more "virtual", and less human.

“We are at the start of a new era,” he says. “We are living through a dramatic time of change for technology. It’s dangerous - but there are opportunities.. for some.”

“A lot of people in today’s workplace have no skills,” he says, “Many managers and middle managers do jobs which are unnecessary - or will become so. They really should fear.”

Prokurat argues that the new economy won’t depend on people being in the same room, or meeting, or even on the same continent - so people whose job is to make others interact will become unnecessary.

“People who have unique skills - programming say, or knowledge of a specialist area - can’t be replaced either by robots or by Asians,” Prokurat says.

These 'hyperspecialists' will be able to make a living, even while jobs around the world dwindle - replaced by software.

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“People will have to adapt to survive,” he says. Prokurat says that the relationship between employer and employee has changed - and those who will survive are “hyperspecialists”, who can sell themselves to employers via social sites.

“Employers will always buy skills they need,” he argues - and the new world is borderless, and, he says “bodiless”. Those who can find skills, and sell them, will be the lucky ones, though.

Since 2008, 7.6 million jobs have ‘vanished’ in Europe, according to an Associated Press investigation spanning 20 countries. One-third of those have been ‘replaced’ by technology, acccording to Maarten Goos, a researcher at the University of Leuven.

Andrew Anderson, CEO of UK artificial intelligence company, Celaton, said this week that technology will impact the white-collar workplace far faster than many imagine - and predicts that AI systems could replace clerical jobs within five years.

“Companies will always try to cut costs, and create high profits,” Prokurat says, “ The internet will mean cuts in the cost of interaction - ie management. That will mean fewer and fewer jobs - at least permanent ones.”

“There are new opportunities - but this new world is being created by a new generation, who have been online almost since birth,” Prokurat says. “They understand this world.”

“Robots are already stealing our jobs,” he says. “This is going to accelerate - and it will affect service industries next. When robots acquire ‘smarts’, that’s when they will really start to kill off middle class jobs. When they talk - and it won’t be long.”

Climbing the career ladder is no longer the way to “get ahead”. Managers too are under threat, although it’s less easy to see this - the collection of “big data” allows software to make decisions that highly paid managers once did.

In factories and small businesses, off-the-shelf software already "makes the decisions" - and the collection of data is not stopping, or slowing.

“We should be worrying about technology - that’s what will kill the middle class off, and it will affect Asia as much as us. Technology has always killed jobs,” says Prokurat.

By 2020, analyst IDC predicts the world will store 35 zettabytes of data - 35 billion terabytes, and 44 times than the world stored in 2009. Humans will not be the ones “managing” this information.

But the social nature of the web, means that the skilled can, and will, find a place.

“You will have to create your own face,” says Prokurat. “ To survive, you learn. Find that skill, use LinkedIn, use Facebook, build your network. Write a blog. You have to advertise yourself.”

The idea of eight-hour-days, and desk jobs, will vanish, too.

“Companies communicate with the world 24 hours a day,” he says, “Every day of the week. People focus on the tools - the smartphones, the PCs - but the world, our cities are changing. Our perception of time is changing. People will think, "Why can't we go to university in the evenings?"

The one thing we cannot do, is turn back the clock.

“The idea that we will go back to making objects is wrong,” he says. ““British people shouldn’t be mourning the manufacturing industry, and wondering how to bring it back. It has gone. It has left for Asia. But it’s the technology we should focus on.”

Prokurat says the future will mean there are fewer jobs - but it may not be as dark as it sounds.

“I can’t predict the future,” he says. “But the skill that will be the most important will be the ability to think creatively - those people will be in great demand. Build your knowledge, manage your time, and companies will use you, whether you’re a programmer in Thailand or a writer in England.”

“Perhaps the future will be a world of craftsmen - just working more slowly than we do now,” Prokurat says, “Perhaps we will just learn to enjoy our spare time.”