Almost five million British people will be morbidly obese by 2035, researchers predict

Almost five million British people will be morbidly obese by 2035, according to new research.

The research by the UK Heart Forum and Institute of Technology, Sligo, in Ireland, reveals a “worrying picture” of rising morbid obesity across England, Wales and Scotland, its authors said.

According to projections, the number of those aged 15 and older with a Body Mass Index (BMI) above 40 will more than double within 20 years.

If current trends continue, there will be 4.99 million morbidly obese people in England, Wales and Scotland by 2035 – up from 1.9 million in 2015.

More than one in 10 are predicted to be morbidly obese in Wales, while the highest levels will be seen among English men aged 55 to 64 years old, the research found.

The study, which looked at annual health data to try to predict how many people will be living with the most extreme forms of obesity in the future, will be presented at the European Congress on Obesity in Vienna, Austria.

Its authors said: “Our study reveals a worrying picture of rising morbid obesity across England, Wales and Scotland that is likely to weigh heavily on healthcare systems and economies. Strong measures to reverse this future trend must be an important public health priority.”

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A BMI of above 25 means a person is classed as overweight and above 30 means they are obese.

Morbid obesity is associated with significant health issues, including a high risk of chronic diseases such as Type 2 diabetes, heart disease, stroke, mental illness and some cancers, the researchers said.

In 2015, 4% of adults in Scotland, 3% in England and 3% in Wales were classed as morbidly obese.

According to the analysis, they are predicted to rise to 5% in Scotland, 8% in England and 11% in Wales by 2035.

In England alone, this means 4,382,906 people are predicted to be morbidly obese, including 16% of men aged 55 to 64. In Wales, 340,899 people are predicted to fall into this category, along with 268,650 in Scotland.

There was insufficient data to examine trends in Ireland and Northern Ireland.