Britain will be 'anti-Brexit by 2021', study finds

A new report released to mark the first anniversary of Article 50 being triggered has claimed that Britain will be anti-Brexit by 2021.

The research, undertaken by The UK in a Changing Europe initiative, comes exactly a year until the UK leaves the European Union and begins a two-year transition period.

But upon completion of the transition period in 2021, the report claims that the pro-Brexit sentiment will have largely subsided, with rises in education and changes in population among the key reasons for this.

‘There are some robust and well established demographic trends that will influence opinion in future: rising education levels, rising ethnic diversity and generational change. Projecting these trends, we can offer an estimate of how the political climate may change over the Brexit transition and beyond’, the new report states.

‘All else being equal, these changes will tend to pull opinion in a pro-European direction. We estimate they would be sufficient to produce a majority of 52%-48% for Remain in 2021, and 54%-46% by 2026.

‘However, in 2016 many Remain voters also wanted a reduction of EU powers, so the demographic trend is not necessarily one in favour of reversing Brexit, but it does suggest public pressure for close association with the EU will rise over time.’

The latest report comes only months after former Prime Minister Sir John Major caused waves by predicting a similar scenario.

Speaking in February, Mr Major said: ‘By 2021 the electorate will have changed. Some voters will have left us. Many new voters will be enfranchised. […] No one can truly know what ‘the will of the people’ may then be.’

The report was also supported by leading Brexit academic Professor John Curtice, who admitted that the ‘economic consequences’ of Brexit could be integral in changing the minds of the electorate in future.

Writing in a report preface, Curtice claimed: ’It appears that, in contrast to arguments about how well the Brexit process is being handled upon which much of the commentary of the first year of the Brexit process has been inclined to focus, the debate about the economic consequences of Brexit does appear have the potential to persuade Leave as well as Remain voters to change their minds..’