Catalan David vs Madrid Goliath: Why Carles Puigdemont could be playing for time

The first deadline passed on Monday and the Catalan leader did not state definitively: "I declare independence".

Why not?

As many have asked in recent days, what is the point of a referendum (even if it is declared illegal) if you don't follow through on the results it produces?

That's a fair point and one that makes many curious about Carles Puigdemont's strategy.

As one Catalan supporter of independence pondered yesterday: "What is he playing at?"

Well, there are plenty who think he is playing a clever political hand.

Hoping his refusal to state his position will force Madrid into invoking the "nuclear option" and rescind the autonomy of Catalonia in a nation where regional self-governance is fiercely defended, pushing for dialogue, negotiations, meetings with the Spanish government and international mediation makes him seem like the decent politician in the pack.

A Catalan David vs a Madrid Goliath?

As Catalan economist Javier Asensio says: "I believe he is trying to win time, with the intention of appearing before the international community as the only party in favour of dialogue."

Smart? Well, maybe not.

Mr Asensio says: "He runs the risk of not being taken seriously once it becomes clear that he only seeks confrontation."

Confrontation? Is that really what he is after?

Well, maybe, as a means to a final end of a legal referendum on Catalonian secession, forcing international arbitration or (and many people are keen on this) at the very least getting a better deal for his wealthy region.

Already, the socialists in Spain - who oppose independence and back Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's tough stance with the separatists - have brokered an agreement for a review of the constitution which could change the deal for Spain's autonomous authorities, as a means to break the stand-off.

Last night, a Spanish judge remanded two leading members of the Catalan independence movement in jail on allegations of sedition.

The men are being investigated over a protest on 20 September in which a crowd blocked police officers inside a building in Barcelona.

Many see their incarceration as just and question why Puigdemont himself hasn't been arrested, but pro-independence supporters have already called for further protests demanding the men's release.

A heavy-handed central government punishing peaceful activists is the perception of many.

And remember, this is the same government which sent in the national police to stop the referendum . Their aggressive tactics drew international condemnation.

There is no disputing Mr Puigdemont is a true believer in his cause but he is no simple independence romanticist pursuing his case without appreciating the consequences.

Evidence uncovered during police searches ahead of the referendum suggested the Catalan government had carefully calculated the likely political and social fallout of the vote.

Another Catalan political expert tells us: "Puigdemont won't give in. He will try to respond with evasive arguments, as this is a war of attrition and the first to move loses. Puidgemont needs Rajoy to get his hands dirty, to increase international support. It is his only way out."

But, if that is so, it is not proving a totally straightforward strategy.

So far, the EU has rejected calls to act as mediator and member states have insisted they would not recognise a unilaterally declared independent state.

Catalonia outside the EU (that would be the early reality) could prove economically disastrous.

Already hundreds of companies have moved, or have indicated they will move, operations from the area because of fears of independence.

Still, leading world figures, from Nobel prize winners to former US presidents, have called for dialogue.

Mr Rajoy insists he will not negotiate on the outcome of a process which was illegal, setting the scene for a final reckoning this Thursday.

Mr Puidgemont has been told to state unequivocally whether he has declared independence.

If he says yes, or if he refuses to respond (as his government has indicated will happen), then Article 155 of the constitution will be invoked, removing Catalonian autonomy and removing Mr Puigdemont himself from his post.

There will be plenty of people cheering that in the Catalan region.

Outside the parliament yesterday, you heard the now-familiar calls for him to be jailed. And that could still happen. But if it does, for plenty of people in Catalonia, he will have become a martyr for the independence cause.

Was that the plan? Many here think so.

Whatever unfolds, Mr Puigdemont will have advanced debate on a cause he passionately believes in.