College football odds, betting: Let's back Kentucky as an underdog over Ole Miss

My betting card each week tends to be small. That’s intentional. I want to love my wagers and not just like them. I look for high-conviction plays and leave the rest to chance. You can’t control the outcome of a game, but you can control the bets you make. Here’s what I like for Week 5 of college football.

Kentucky +7 (+210 ML) at Ole Miss

If I’m backing a favorite, I’ll need that team to play all four quarters to cover. In two games this season, the Rebels have scored just seven points or fewer in the second half. They scored a touchdown in Week 1 against Troy and were shut out in a 35-27 win against Tulsa last week. Kentucky is top 30 in points scored in the second half this season, averaging 18 points per game.

This early trend for the Rebels could continue against Kentucky. As a run-heavy team, Ole Miss is in the bottom half of the FBS in giveaways, with two interceptions and 10 fumbles. In second halves against Troy and Tulsa, Ole Miss had three fumbles and one interception. Eventually trends become a problem if they continue. I’m fading a 7-point favorite that can’t put up points to close out games.

Best bet: Cal +4 (+160 ML) at Washington State

I love the Golden Bears as underdogs as they've gone 6-1 ATS in that role since 2020. Watch above for my full reasoning for backing Cal as my top wager of the week.