Nicolas Sarkozy v Francois Hollande: What happens when the dust settles?

As France goes to the polls, there is a strong possibility the British and French governments will find themselves in very different ideological camps once the results are known. What are the implications for France's relationship with Britain and Europe if Nicolas Sarkozy clinches a second term? Will his rival François Hollande re-assess the Entente Cordiale if the French electorate votes him in? Let's take a look at the outcomes of what is proving to be a battle royal.

In the blue corner is incumbent President Nicolas Sarkozy, who boasts a strong international record but a domestic track record that has failed to convince large swathes of the electorate.

In the red corner is François Hollande, inexperienced at government level but playing a classic insurgent campaign against an increasingly battle-weary incumbent.

In his five years in power, Sarkozy has committed himself to the austerity measures that have swept Europe, but his involvement in stabilising the Eurozone has failed to convince voters, while France’s domestic economy has stubbornly refused to bounce back.

Contending with vocal opponents hellbent on outflanking him to the right, his anti-immigration - and some would say anti-Islamic - platform has backfired, particularly after the tragedies in Toulouse. He’s also seemingly willing to flaunt his wealth and former model wife, even as unemployment climbs to over 9.7 per cent.

If he wins, it will give him a mandate to drive forward the austerity measures he introduced in his opening term. While Sarko and David Cameron have had their public spats over the single currency and the mechanics of the European Union - not least when Cameron infamously wielded his veto -  they are still cut from the same ideological cloth, favouring the market over the state and reluctant to aggressively tax the rich.

Sarkozy’s opponent François Hollande is seen by many as a drip-dry leftwing drone. Nicknamed Flanby after a wobbly caramel custard, he shares some similar presentational issues to his ideological ally, Ed Milliband.

But his carefully cultivated everyman image seems attractive when compared to a President who doesn’t seem to understand the needs of the electorate. Hollande is a quiet, consensus-building politician who, for many years, stood behind his wife, the socialist candidate of the 2007 election, Ségolène Royal.


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And Hollande’s instincts are solidly social democrat. A fiscal-policy nerd, he’s campaigning for a 75% income tax for those earning over one million euros, tighter regulation of the banking industry and the creation of tens of thousands of new teaching jobs. It’s working too, with an eight point lead according to the latest poll.

His many opponents are convinced he will create even more market uncertainty and send interest rates spiraling, even as France faces a national debt of 90% of GDP by the end of 2012. The French government has not run a surplus in over 35 years, so is more spending the answer? Furthermore are the electorate right to jump ship simply because they dislike Sarko?

George Osborne would surely advise the French to stick with Sarko. The Chancellor's career - like Sarko's - is reliant on the success of austerity, but it already looks shaky in Spain, Portugal and Ireland.